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Nigeria: Exchange rate outcomes must be anchored on real economic productivity – NESG - NIGERIAN TRIBUNE
Naira appreciation should be driven by productivity, not speculation
Nigeria Economic Summit Group (NESG) has said that the stability of the naira in 2026 will largely depend on the country’s ability to rebuild its foreign exchange reserves to above US$50 billion and sustain crude oil production at over two million barrels per day.
In its 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook titled “Consolidating Economic Stabilisation Gains: Pathway to Sustainable Growth in Nigeria”, the private-sector-led policy advocacy group stressed that exchange rate outcomes must be anchored on real economic productivity rather than speculative inflows.
“By 2026, exchange rate stability will hinge on rebuilding foreign reserves to comfortable levels above US$50 billion, significantly expanding non-oil export earnings, and maintaining oil production above two million barrels per day,” the report stated.
“Naira appreciation should be driven by productivity, not speculation.”
The NESG said Nigeria now stands at a critical transition point, moving from crisis-era stabilisation to a phase of macroeconomic consolidation that requires discipline, policy coordination, and structural reforms.
It noted that while the economy recorded meaningful stabilisation gains in 2025, these improvements remain fragile and must be carefully locked in.
