Market News

BY James Titcomb

Rachel Reeves could be on the brink of a Bitcoin windfall worth billions as she battles to fill her budget black hole.

The Home Office is working with police forces to sell off a hoard of seized cryptocurrency estimated to be worth at least £5bn in a move that could ease pressure on the beleaguered Chancellor.

It plans to develop an official crypto storage system that would handle sales of Bitcoin and other digital currencies.

The potential sell-off comes amid growing concerns about a black hole in the public finances, following Sir Keir Starmer’s about-turns on welfare and the winter fuel allowance.

Economists believe the Chancellor must find as much as £20bn in the autumn as she struggles to balance the books in the face of higher borrowing costs and weak growth.

Stubborn inflation figures have threatened to keep interest rates high, raising the cost of borrowing. Ministers have indicated that taxes will have to rise to fill a budget black hole.

Cryptocurrency sales are handled by law enforcement agencies, but the Treasury is understood to be monitoring the situation. A recent rise in the price of digital currencies promises to multiply the already significant sums involved.

The total amount of seized cryptocurrency currently held by police is unknown. But a single raid in 2018 recovered 61,000 Bitcoin from the proceeds of a Chinese Ponzi scheme being stashed in Britain.

Bitcoin’s value hit $123,000 (£92,000) last week, making the stash worth more than £5.4bn, up 20-fold from its value when seized.

Prices have surged as Donald Trump has ushered in a series of changes in the US to broaden access to and adoption of cryptocurrencies. Lawmakers in the US passed the country’s first major national cryptocurrency legislation, known as the Genius Act, on Friday.

Nigel Farage, the leader of Reform UK, has called for Britain to establish a national Bitcoin reserve, an idea that has been rejected by Labour.

Home Office plans for a “crypto storage and realisation framework” would allow law enforcement to securely store frozen digital currencies and sell them. It is unclear how much would accrue to the Treasury from any sales.

However, in many criminal seizures the Treasury takes a substantial portion of the proceeds if sums cannot be returned to victims.

In the case of the 2018 raid, Chinese victims of the investment fraud have asked for the Bitcoin to be returned.

The public purse is in dire need of extra revenue as growth falters. Last week Richard Hughes, the chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility, suggested higher taxes would not be enough to address a looming debt crisis.

Experts said crypto seizures represented a potentially lucrative avenue for raising funds.

“There is oil under our feet in terms of digital assets, from an illicit perspective, that could have hundreds of millions of pounds coming back into the UK each year,” said Aidan Larkin, the chief executive of seizure company Asset Reality.

Cryptocurrencies are increasingly used to evade financial controls and carry out investment scams, making them a key target for police seeking to stop criminal activity.

Law enforcement agencies have sold Bitcoin seized from criminals in the past, but plans for a centralised system suggests ministers recognise the growing significance of cryptocurrency as a potential revenue source.

Last week, the US Marshals Service said it had more than $3.4bn in seized Bitcoin. The Trump administration has vowed to create a strategic reserve using the cryptocurrencies.

Tender documents from BlueLight Commercial, the Home Office’s procurement body for law enforcement, said the contract would be worth up to £40m. The provider would be paid a commission based on cryptocurrency sales.

The project’s future is unclear after an updated notice said it had not received acceptable bids, although it is expected to continue in some form.

Proceeds of crime that are not returned to victims are split between central government accounts and a pot for law enforcement programmes. The decision to sell Bitcoin is ultimately made by crime-fighting agencies.

Bitcoin’s price has doubled in the last year on the prospects of the Trump administration treating the digital currency favourably in contrast to a series of investigations launched by the Biden White House.

Speaking in Las Vegas in May, Mr Farage said that he would establish a UK Bitcoin reserve if he was made prime minister as part of a plan for a cryptocurrency “revolution”.

Labour has rejected the idea, saying it is too volatile to store sovereign funds in.

Analysis | Britain is sitting on billions in Bitcoin. Can it rescue Reeves?

Selling crypto may offer a quick fix for the cash-strapped Chancellor – but it risks repeating a historic mistake

Gordon Brown’s decision to sell the majority of Britain’s gold reserves in 1999 has been dubbed by some as one of the worst investment decisions ever made by the government.

The 401 tonnes of gold the former chancellor sold at the market’s nadir brought in $3.5bn, far from the $40bn it would be worth today.

A quarter of a century later, one of Brown’s successors is sitting on a potentially similarly sized goldmine of the digital variety, as well as another potentially perilous selling decision.

Britain’s Bitcoin stockpile, confiscated from various criminal enterprises, is today estimated in the billions, a development that has led to calls for Rachel Reeves to cash in to ease pressure on the public finances.

The value of these holdings has soared after the price of Bitcoin recently hit a record high above $123,000 – double its level a year ago.

While there is no estimate of the amount of cryptocurrency seized from criminals, a single raid in 2018 recovered a wallet containing 61,000 Bitcoin from Jian Wen, a takeaway worker who was jailed last year for money laundering.

At the time of the raid, Bitcoin was worth around $6,000, with the total haul more than £300m.

Today, it is worth more than £5.4bn according to Arkham Intelligence, a company that analyses cryptocurrency transactions.

Last week, the US Marshals Service, an arm of the Department of Justice, said it had around $3.4bn in Bitcoin, although experts have said the US government’s total haul is likely to be much higher.

Publicly, the Treasury says it does not hold any Bitcoin. The proceeds of crime such as investment scams are managed by police and are first meant to be returned to victims.

But this is often not possible and in reality 20 to 30pc is kept, says Aidan Larkin, the chief executive of Asset Reality, a company that specialises in seizing the proceeds of crime.

Cryptocurrency prices fluctuate wildly and seizures are handled by local forces, making it impossible to know how much has been seized.

But Larkin is adamant that the Treasury is in line for a potential windfall.

“If I’m in the Treasury, I’m thinking of this as our Norway oil moment. I do think digital assets will lead to a large windfall for government agencies and the public purse over the next five to 10 years,” Larkin says.

Making crime pay

Since 2019, £1.4bn has been seized and frozen from the proceeds of crime.

“We could double that by having a greater focus on digital assets,” Larkin says.

Under current legislation, the proceeds of crime that are not returned to victims are split between frontline police agencies and the central government.

Bitcoin’s growing value has led to suggestions that Reeves should sell what Bitcoin she can, with Norman Lamont, the former chancellor, saying she should spend it “right away”.

However, in reality, selling crypto is more difficult than seizing it and untangling crypto-related crimes can take years.

In the case of Jian Wen, victims of fraud have asked for their money back. The Home Office did not provide any update on the case.

“With the delays in court hearings that we’re getting now, you have to seize it and then maintain it for a long time,” says Professor Michael Levi of Cardiff University, an expert on asset seizures.

However, there are signs that the Government is taking steps to offload Bitcoin. A branch of the Home Office has sought bids for a “crypto storage and realisation framework” that would centralise and organise the sale of various cryptocurrency seizures.

The provider would earn up to £40m in commission when cryptocurrencies are sold, indicating that at least hundreds of millions of pounds worth are earmarked to be sold.

If the Government were to confiscate the proceeds of Jian Wen’s Bitcoin seizure, it could boost the Treasury’s coffers by around £2.6bn, roughly half the cost of Sir Keir Starmer’s recent benefits climbdown or a third of the cost of the Afghan data breach revealed last week.

While the decision is meant to be taken by law enforcement, the sums at stake – and Bitcoin’s famous volatility – suggest the Chancellor would take an interest.

The Treasury is understood to be keeping tabs on the potential for a cryptocurrency windfall.

A quick-fire sell-off could lead to accusations of selling too early, especially given Bitcoin’s blistering rise over recent years.

Nigel Farage, the leader of Reform UK, has said he would establish a Bitcoin reserve if made prime minister, following in the footsteps of ally Donald Trump, who has already ordered officials to create a reserve from seized cryptocurrency.

Labour has recently turned down the idea, with Emma Reynolds, the Economic Secretary, saying that Bitcoin’s volatility makes it “less suitable as a reserve asset for the UK”.

Yet, the strain on the public purse suggests Reeves could do with the money now.

Bitcoin could provide a short-term boost to Britain and the Chancellor will just hope she is not repeating Brown’s mistake.