Market News

By Oluwakemi Abimbola

The Nigerian private sector saw new orders rising to a three-month high on the back of decelerating inflation.

This was disclosed in the latest Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI compiled by S&P Global, which was published on Monday.

The PUNCH reports that the National Bureau of Statistics stated that Nigeria’s headline inflation rate dropped to 16.05 per cent in October 2025 from 18.02 per cent recorded in September.

The report indicated that the headline PMI remained comfortably above the 50.0 no-change mark in November at 53.6. This marked a solid strengthening in the health of the private sector, slightly less pronounced than seen in October (54.0).

Expansions were signalled across all four broad sectors covered by the survey, which include agriculture, mining, manufacturing, construction, wholesale, retail, and services.

“Panellists linked output growth to higher sales, the securing of more customers and the launch of new products, which also helped to boost new business. New orders increased for the thirteenth month running, and at a sharp pace that was the fastest in three months. Companies were helped by an easing of inflationary pressures, continuing the trend seen through much of 2025.

The rate of overall input cost inflation remained sharp but eased to the lowest in almost five years amid weaker increases in both purchase prices and staff costs. In turn, the pace of output price inflation eased for the sixth time in the past seven months and was the weakest since April 2020,” read the report.

On the employment front, “Companies increased both their staffing levels and purchasing activity in November, albeit to differing degrees. While employment growth slowed and was only marginal, the rate of expansion in input buying hit a seven-month high. The sharp rise in purchasing helped inventories to increase at the fastest pace since June 2023 as companies stockpiled in response to higher new orders and prepared for future customer requirements. Despite expanded capacity, backlogs of work increased for the first time in four months amid delayed payments by customers.”

Despite the upswing, the report indicated that business confidence continued to trend downwards midway through the final quarter, easing for the fifth month running to the lowest since May. “Those respondents with an optimistic outlook for output over the coming year linked this to business investment and expansion plans,” it further read.

Commenting on the report, the Head of Equity Research West Africa at Stanbic IBTC Bank, Muyiwa Oni, said, “Nigeria’s headline PMI remained in the expansionary territory in November but moderated when compared to October. Nonetheless, the strong output continues to reflect easing inflationary pressures, which is helping to support higher sales for businesses that are now launching new products and securing more customers. Hence, new orders rose to a three-month high of 56.9 points from 56.3 points in October. More positively, new orders have now increased in each of the past 13 months. Consequently, output increased across all four broad sectors (Agriculture, Manufacturing, Wholesale & Retail, and Services) covered by the survey, led by Manufacturing and Services.

“Input costs continue to soften, easing to their slowest since December 2020, underpinned by weaker rises in both purchase prices and staff costs. Survey participants who signalled a rise in purchase prices compared to October linked this to higher costs for raw materials and transportation. The changes in output prices also mirrored the input cost. This is as output price inflation also eased in November, slowing for the sixth time in seven months to the weakest since April 2020.”

On the economy, he said, “We still see the Nigerian economy growing by 4.0% in 2025. Both Manufacturing and Services are likely to see higher growth in 2025 compared to 2024 levels, based on the results from the PMI surveys so far this year. Elsewhere, the government has been visible in infrastructure, livestock development, easing trade constraints, and attracting investments in oil & gas and manufacturing. Aside from that, the Dangote refinery is expected to continue to have a forward-linkage impact on other sectors of the economy. Also, likely lower interest rates in line with lower inflation and exchange rate stabilisation should support private consumption and business investments in 2026. Because of these factors, we see more sectors contributing to the real GDP growth rate in 2026 compared to 2025, likely translating to an improvement in the quality of life of the citizens relative to 2025.”