Market News

By Promit Mukherjee and Ismail Shakil

OTTAWA (Reuters) -Canada recorded a ninth consecutive monthly trade deficit in November, albeit smaller than expected, as exports rose faster than imports, and its trade surplus with the United States widened, data showed on Tuesday.

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized Canada's trade surplus with its biggest trading partner and has said he will impose a unilateral 25% tariff on all Canadian goods, which economists said could dent this surplus.

Total exports rose 2.2% in November, helped by gains in a broad section of product categories, while imports were up 1.8%, led by consumer goods and chemical, plastic and rubber products, Statistics Canada said.

As a result, Canada's trade deficit narrowed to C$323 million ($225.6 million) from a revised C$544 million deficit in October. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a C$900 million deficit in November.

The trade surplus with the United States widened to C$8.2 billion after shrinking to C$6.6 billion in October.

"We see early signs of a front-loading of exports to the U.S. in the light of expected tariffs from President-elect Trump," said Stuart Bergman, chief economist at Export Development Canada, adding that exports to the U.S. are also expected to be elevated for December and January.

The U.S. trade deficit widened in November, as businesses worried about possible tariffs on foreign goods increased imports, more than offsetting a leap in exports to a record high.

CANADA'S SURPLUS

Underscoring the potential impact of any Trump tariffs, Canada's surplus with the U.S. was enough to nearly offset Canada's trade deficit with all other countries - which widened to C$8.5 billion in November from C$7.2 billion.

The Canadian dollar slightly weakened after the data to trade 0.13% higher to 1.4311 against the U.S. dollar, or 69.88 U.S. cents.

The rise in total exports was led by a second consecutive monthly increase in consumer goods, mainly due to large shipments of medicaments sent to the United States.

Miscellaneous goods and supplies also contributed, mainly because of higher exports of battery packs for electric vehicles to the United States, Statscan said.

Overall, nine of 11 export product sections rose in the month.

The largest contributors to the monthly increase in imports were consumer goods, basic and industrial chemical, plastic and rubber products, and industrial machinery, equipment and parts.

Canada's imports have risen steadily since the beginning of last year, indicating resilience in the country's otherwise slowing economy, Bergman said.

Due to implementation of new software at the Canada Border Services Agency, trade data for October and November include a greater degree of estimation. Trade values were also impacted by the depreciation of the Canadian dollar in those months.

The Canadian central bank, concerned about economic growth, has sharply lowered borrowing costs since June, including back-to-back 50 bp interest rate cuts.

Money markets have priced in a 70% chance of another 25 basis point rate cut later this month..

Data last month showed the Canadian economy likely contracted in November, weighed down by declines in sectors, including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction and transportation and warehousing.

($1 = 1.4331 Canadian dollars)

(Reporting by Ismail Shakil and Promit Mukherjee; Additional reporting by Dale Smith; Editing by Ros Russell and Barbara Lewis)