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Thai Central Bank Vows ‘Robust’ Policy to Cope With Uncertainty - BLOOMBERG
(Bloomberg) -- Thailand’s central bank will pursue a “robust” monetary policy that can effectively cope with high uncertainties and unintended consequences facing the global economy next year, according to Governor Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput.
The Bank of Thailand’s policy decisions will be outlook-dependent and not so much data-driven, Sethaput said at an economic conference in Bangkok on Tuesday. The monetary authority will stick to the practice of not giving “too much” forward guidance to maintain flexibility, he said.
BOT wants to improve Thailand’s economic resiliency by pursuing the so-called robust policy that may not be optimal but allows the central bank to pay equal attention to financial stability and deal with high uncertainties on the horizon, Sethaput said. It will help preserve BOT’s policy optionality and ensure adequate financial buffers while following a flexible policy framework, the governor said.
Sethaput’s comments signal the dilemma facing rate-setters around the world as US President-elect Donald Trump’s threat to impose steep tariffs on imports risks upending global trade and stoke geopolitical tensions. For a trade-reliant economy like Thailand, a muddied outlook for its exports can complicate policymaking though the government has repeatedly called for lower rates to bolster a nascent economic recovery.
Sethaput said the world needs to prepare for geo-economic fragmentation and hit to global trade next year. Trump’s proposed trade tariffs, widening US fiscal deficit, planned deportation of illegal laborers fueling inflation may affect monetary policies, he said.
BOT surprised markets in October by cutting its key rate for the first time since 2020, though policymakers indicated the cut was not the start of an easing cycle. Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira on Tuesday said there was enough room to cut rates further to support the economy given the low rate of inflation.
The headline inflation has stayed below the central bank’s 1% to 3% target range for a fifth straight month. The International Monetary Fund has backed the government call for more easing, saying a further reduction in policy rate can support the ongoing economic recovery and translate into improvements in borrowers’ debt-servicing capacity.
BOT’s Monetary Policy Committee is scheduled to meet on Dec. 18 to decide on rates. Sethaput on Oct. 23 said the bar for taking further rate moves has to be “reasonably high.”
Sethaput said fiscal efforts to boost consumption may prove counter-productive as its might fuel imports from China rather than benefiting local manufacturers who are are hit by an influx of cheap Chinese-made products.
--With assistance from Pathom Sangwongwanich.
