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Rupee to see muted reaction to rising US inflation, Trump tariff worries -REUTERS

FEBRUARY 14, 2025

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MUMBAI, Feb 13 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is likely to open flat-to-marginally weaker on Thursday after hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data made it likely that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates in a hurry and on comments by President Donald Trump that he will impose reciprocal tariffs soon.
The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated that the rupee will open at 86.88-86.92 to the U.S. dollar compared with 86.8925 in the previous session.

The muted opening comes on the heels of a choppy few days for the Indian currency, largely due to heavy intervention by Reserve Bank of India (RBI).
The currency, so far this week, has been in wide 1.5-rupee band of 86.50 to 88. Volatility has spiked, with the 1-month realized volatility at its highest in nearly two years.
"It will be relatively calm today compared to what we have seen recently. The RBI has made in known that it is not happy with the quick pace of (rupee's) decline, which means that the market will be wary of piling on to (dollar) longs," a currency trader at a bank said.


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