APRIL 25, 2023

Ross Aimer still recalls the snow-white Russian tundra unfurling on the horizon during flights he piloted between the U.S. and Asia.

“In summertime, it's all daytime flying. That's beautiful views,” said Aimer, CEO of California-based Aero Consulting Experts and a former United Airlines captain.

Those vistas are no longer available to flight crews from many Western countries. Russia barred Canadian, American, British and European Union operators from its airspace more than a year ago in response to airspace prohibitions against it by those states and others that support Ukraine, after Moscow invaded its neighbour in February 2022.

European airlines are among the most affected, having to reroute planes on hours-long detours to reach Asia and parts of the Middle East.

But Canadian carriers are impacted too, with planes en route to East Asia and South Asia forced to skirt around Russian airspace daily, and no sign of relief on the radar. The detours mean longer trips, greater fuel and labour costs and ultimately higher fares for passengers amid soaring inflation and already pricey international travel.

“It's definitely a negative for U.S. airlines and for Canadian airlines. It is definitely an issue,” said Helane Becker, an aviation analyst with TD Cowen.

Flight paths to Asia don’t cut straight across the Pacific Ocean, but rather run the shortest possible distance by tracing an arc through the Arctic — and, before the airspace bans, through eastern Russia.

“The optimal flight route between Canada and Southeast Asia and everything in between would have you pass through parts of Russian airspace, from the point basically north of the Korean Peninsula and then down,” said former Air Canada chief operating officer Duncan Dee.

The adjusted routes, marked on flight-tracking apps that show a steady stream of jetliners skirting Russian airspace over the Bering Sea, can be 10 per cent longer in distance than before the war. That applies for flights from Vancouver to Hong Kong or from Toronto to Delhi, said Robert Kokonis, president of consulting firm AirTrav Inc. Other non-stop routes, such as Vancouver to Bangkok or Seoul, would also need a course correction.

The extra fuel burned as a result is no rounding error. Though down from its peak last June, jet fuel’s price of US$2.68 per gallon in March still marks a 41 per cent jump from four years earlier.

“That adds to the ticket price for the consumer,” Becker said.

One-way Air Canada fares from Vancouver to Hong Kong rose 41 per cent between January 2019 and January 2023, according to flight data firm Cirium. The airline’s flights from Toronto to Delhi cost 47 per cent more over the same time period.

In contrast, the average fare for all flights — not just Air Canada’s — between Vancouver and Hong Kong actually dropped by 22 per cent between January 2019 and January 2023. Trips between Toronto and Delhi saw prices rise just 25 per cent. Those corridors are used by carriers that include China Airlines, Cathay Pacific, Korean Air and Air India — all of which are exempt from Russia’s airspace ban and enjoying a lower cost per trip.

That puts Air Canada and other barred airlines at a competitive disadvantage, said Aimer, who last piloted a plane over Russia some two decades ago.

“Every minute you add, the cost goes up,” he said. “If you could go over the (North) Pole, you save up to one or two hours. Now you have to go a more southerly route.

“Western airlines that do not go over Russian territory … are at a financial disadvantage,” he said. “Most of the northern part of the world is Russian airspace.”

Asia isn't Air Canada’s biggest market, but it is a substantial slice. Flights to Pacific countries accounted for more than 14 per cent of its $17.23-billion revenue in 2019. Moreover, travel between China and North America has been ramping up since the former began to reopen after prolonged COVID-19 travel restrictions — meaning western airlines may contend with thinner margins on a crowded field.

"Many of Air Canada’s routes to Asia, India and the Middle East have had some rerouting due to the prohibition on Russian airspace," said spokesman Peter Fitzpatrick in an email. Some, such as Vancouver-Delhi, have been suspended.

"Longer routes increase costs and fuel consumption and reduce passenger capacity and cargo loads, making certain routes uncompetitive and/or uneconomically viable."

Industry group Airlines for America has pegged the lost annual market share of U.S. carriers at about US$2 billion per year, noting that some planned routes have been put on hold thanks to the ban.

The group has pressed the White House and Congress to bar airlines that still fly over Russia from landing or departing at U.S. airports – effectively subjecting those carriers to the same restrictions facing U.S. airlines.

Air Canada said governments should "ensure there is a level playing field that provides for fair competition and equitable opportunities for all carriers," but did not specify how that might translate to policy.

Canada’s biggest carrier might take comfort in its profit-sharing deal with Air China, part of a code-share agreement that sees each airline market flights operated by the other under its own banner.

But Air Canada runs its own flights to some of Asia’s biggest air hubs, meaning the trips remain subject to Moscow’s prohibition.

“Code-shares are obviously advantageous, but not to a point that you give up that route — surrender it to a code-share partner. You’d make a little bit of money, but not as much as you would if you flew it to yourself,” Aimer said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published April 23, 2023.

APRIL 26, 2023

By Wole Oyebade

• Six-hour economy return-trip between N1.1m and N2.97m • Qatar, European carriers repatriate from I&E window, reopen naira inventories • Air travel goes elitist, exclusive to the rich, needs local capacity – experts say

For the third time in less than a month, the rate of exchange (RoE) applicable to foreign airlines has ballooned, hitting N582/$1 with attendant spike in the cost of international air travel.

At the new RoE, registered by the Global Distribution System (GDS), a six-hour Lagos-London economy class ticket now fluctuates between N1.1 million and N2.97 million – subject to airline of choice, place and time of booking. Its business class variant sells for an average of N3.36 million to N4.8 million.

While stakeholders regretted that the development has further pushed international air travel beyond the reach of average Nigerians, they acknowledged the inherent respite on foreign airlines that are patronising the Investors’ and Exporters’ (I&E) FX window for fund repatriation, and reopening of naira inventories to travel agencies in the countries.

It will be recalled that the international segment of the aviation sector has been in a stuck fund crisis in the last one year, with knock-on effects on inventories, asking price, and near-collapse of local travel agencies.

Earlier intervention by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) did pledge $265 million in August 2022, leaving a balance of $200 million of the fund. But the stranded funds kept piling by daily sales of tickets, to warrant Emirates Airlines quitting the Nigerian route late October 2022. As at the last check, industry sources said the accumulated was well over $800 million.

The Guardian learnt that following a negotiation to end the logjam, the authorities recently conceded a shift from the official CBN window to the volatile I&E window for the repatriation of foreign airlines’ funds in Nigeria.

The push-pull effect has been evident in the applicable rate of exchange, and attendant cost of travel. At this time last month, the RoE was pegged at N462 to a dollar. About a week later, the rate climbed to N500/$1. Some days afterwards, it reached N551. Last week, the high vicissitude window hit a new high of N582/$1, with airfares tagging along.

Inquiries by The Guardian showed a varying price range across international carriers on the Nigerian route. For instance, Qatar and Ethiopian Airways have some of the cheapest airfares en route London destination – being one of the most popular for Nigerian air travellers.

A Lagos-London-Lagos economy class ticket seat on Qatar (with stopover in Doha), at the weekend, cost an average of N1.2 million. Its business class was sold for N4.8 million. The flagship African carrier, Ethiopia (via Addis Ababa), offered the two cabins for N1.1 million and N3.36 million, respectively.

Legacy carriers like British Airways (BA) and Virgin Atlantic (VA) are on the higher side. Direct Lagos-London-Lagos flight ticket on BA costs an average of N1.8 million in economy cabin and N4.41 million for business class travellers. VA offered the economy class for an average of N2.2 million.

American carrier on the Lagos-Atlanta-Lagos route, Delta Air, charged an average of N4.64 million for economy, and N8.36 million per seat in the business cabin. Similar route on Qatar (via Doha) averages N3.24 million for economy and N4.53 for Business Class travellers.

Travel operators and experts alike were unanimous that the new rates were inevitable and partly a good omen in the current market realities.

Notwithstanding the extra push in the cost of travel that is passed to consumers, President of the National Association of Nigerian Travel Agencies (NANTA), Susan Akporiaye, said the new dispensation in fare pricing is partly solving the problem of stuck funds, and accessibility of tickets to Nigerians.

Akporiaye told reporters that foreign airlines were beginning to repatriate funds from tickets sold in local currency, with a chain reaction in reopening inventories to travel agencies.

Chairman of the Airlines and Passengers Joint Committee (APJC) of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), Bankole Bernard, said foreign airlines accessing the I&E window might be the permanent solution to the perennial problem of stuck funds, and unleashing the commercial viability of the international segment.

Bernard reiterated that the stuck fund crisis had regrettably dragged on for too long because the government was indecisive on what to do with the FX liquidity crisis, and its effects on the foreign airlines.

“The government has been neither here nor there. If you are telling the airlines not to sell at NAFEX rate, but in Naira, and they are not getting their equivalence for repatriation, then the government is the creator of the problem.

“But the airline has started getting their money because they are not waiting for the CBN anymore. They are doing I&E window, though it is higher, but it is good for the airlines, and even the government. The only people that are suffering in all of this are the masses.

“But when you do not subsidise airfares, the airlines will become commercially lucrative because they can sell at the RoE and repatriate their monies easily. Instead of doing one flight, they can do three trips, and make more money. In transport, the real income comes from volume and not yield,” Bernard said.

He added that with the development, a lot of airlines are beginning to warm up to the travel agencies again, and “we are certainly going to sell more tickets this year than last year”.

Travel expert, Sunday Olumegbon, however, said that the approach would further disenfranchise average Nigerians from the aviation industry.

Olumegbon noted that the recent surge in both local and international air traffic would be eroded by cut-throat pricing mechanisms.

Indeed, a summary of 2022 industry performance by the Nigeria Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA), on the overall, showed a market rebound of over 16.17 million passengers recorded on both the domestic (12.7 million) and international (3.5 million) market segments.

The 2022 total traffic figure showed a 13 per cent increase when compared with 2021 figures (14.2 million), and the highest passenger traffic since the COVID-19 post-pandemic era.

Olumegbon said: “In a country of over 200 million, that less than seven per cent of the population travels by air is nothing to be proud of in modern aviation. It used to be eight per cent; so we are retrogressing in our numbers. With the new pricing, how many Nigeria residents will be able to afford international travel? That is the issue.

“Technically, we have solved a problem by creating another one. Aviation globally is the business of freedom. Here, we have further made it elitist, and only for the rich that can afford routine trips,” he said.

Apparently in agreement with Olumegbon, travel analyst, and member of the Aviation Safety Round Table Initiative (ASRTI), Olumide Ohunayo, said the solution to the high pricing regime is to build local capacity for fair competition.

Ohunayo explained that the upward adjustment in RoE is not the exclusive preserve of foreign airlines, rather, based on agreement with the CBN, and notification of the Civil Aviation Authority.

“Even before now, and due to accumulation of funds, the airlines have been selling only premiums to cushion the effect of the trapped funds. Now that they have increased the RoE through I&E window, I think we are gradually getting to the solution. What we need to do is to unify all these different rates like IMF, and the likes have advised. People are making so much money from the different windows, and breaking down the economy.

“Really, the fare going up is inevitable, and that is the situation we have found ourselves in. We only need to compete, and throw more capacities into the international segment. It is either you encourage Nigerian airlines to participate or increase frequencies of foreign airlines.

“I want to see Nigerian airlines participating in the foreign segment. I am seeing local airlines (Air Peace) going to India, Israel, but what is happening to the core routes like London, Ireland, U.S.? We must throw in the capacity to bring down prices,” Ohunayo said.

APRIL 26, 2023

The recent discovery of a deceased stowaway in KLM flight from Lagos to Amsterdam highlights the need for improved security in Nigerian airports, writes FUNMI FABUNMI

The discovery of a deceased stowaway in the wheel well of a KLM flight from Lagos to Amsterdam last week has again brought to the fore the need for managers of the country’s airports to improve security measures and ensure thorough inspections of aircraft before departure. The recent incident highlights the loose ends in airports’ security that airlines and aviation authorities to review and tighten. It was also a pointer that airport security protocols need to be updated regularly to ensure the safety of passengers and crew onboard. Aviation authorities should tie every loose end and ensure that stowaways find it extremely difficult to beat security guards and airport officials.

A stowaway is a person who hides aboard a ship, aeroplane, or other vehicle in order to make a journey secretly or without paying.

Stowaways in wheel wells of aircraft face extreme temperatures that can drop to as low as minus 50 degrees during longer flights, leading to unconsciousness and hypothermia. Despite the risks of death, some stowaways still attempt to use this method to travel without proper documentation, seeking a better life or escaping difficult situations in their home countries.

The Nigeria Civil Aviation Authority disclosed that it has commenced a probe into the recent dead stowaway found in the wheel well of a KLM Royal Dutch Airlines Boeing 777 (registered PH-BQM) on April 17. The probe is to determine the circumstances surrounding the incident. It is hoped that the findings of the probe would help the aviation authority forestall a future occurrence.

The discovery of the yet-to-be-identified stowaway has raised questions about how and when the man was able to climb into the aircraft, which originated from Lagos undiscovered.

The General Manager of the Public Relations Department, NCAA, Sam Adurogboye, when asked about the incident said, “On our part, we will continue to strengthen our oversight over the service providers with a view to put an end to issues like these. All incidences are investigated. The outcome will determine the next line of action.”

Also, the Acting General Manager, Corporate Affairs of the Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria, Faithful Hope-Ivbaze, who spoke with our correspondent in a telephone interview said, “I cannot speak on this subject now because the investigation is ongoing.”

 

Past incidences

In April 2021, the body of a man was found underneath a plane which left Lagos and landed at Amsterdam Airport. The man, thought to be a stowaway, was discovered inside a wheel arch at Schiphol airport.

Dutch authorities stated that they had launched an investigation into the man’s identity and the cause of death.

A spokesperson for the Royal Netherlands Marechaussee said, “The man had holed up in the wheel arch of the plane. The low temperatures have presumably been fatal to him during the flight. If they survive the extremely dangerous journey they can then try and claim asylum.”

In similar cases, a boy, 16, from Kenya hid in the landing gear of a plane flying to Maastricht Aachen airport from London, in February 2021. He survived but was hospitalised with severe hypothermia.

Also, a mystery man fell from the sky in south London and his dead body was found in Clapham Garden. He had been hiding in the landing gear of a Kenya Airways flight to Heathrow.

In October 2020, four people stowed away on the rudder of an oil tanker from Lagos, hiding for 10 days before they were discovered by police as the vessel came into Las Palmas.

In 2019, the Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria officials identified a man found climbing an Azman aircraft, who was arrested and handed over to the police for interrogation.

According to the UN Refugee Agency guidelines, “Stowaway asylum-seekers must be protected against forcible return to their country of origin” as they are in a “particularly vulnerable situation in need of international protection and durable solutions.”

Despite the risks, stowaways still attempt to use this method to travel without proper documentation or authorization.

 

Experts’ comments

Speaking with The PUNCH, the MD of Selective Securities International Limited, Mr Ayo Obilana, raised questions that would help aviation authorities to get to the root of stowaways gaining access to airplanes.

He said, “There is a need for thorough investigation regarding the incident, particularly on one, how the ‘extra passenger’ managed to sneak into his death.”

According to him, the age, gender and other vital information about the deceased passenger must be dug out.

He also said investigators should find out who discovered the body of the dead stowaway.

“A video clip of CCTV of the area on the night/day of departure would help. Forestalling a future occurrence would be very important,” he stated.

Also speaking, the Chief Executive Officer of Centurion Aviation Ltd., John Ojikutu, asked if the dead body was that of a passenger or a stowaway.

He said, “If it was a passenger, the airline be held responsible. If it was a stowaway, then the airport security operatives or authority at the operating/security-restricted area must be held responsible. If it was a stowaway, he must have been an airport/airline staff or former staff who had worked closely with aircraft or must have been a mole ‘working’ in the airport, or could have been aided by someone (insiders threat), working in the airport restricted area.

APRIL 28, 2023

The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) has said that it received a list of 600 smuggled vehicles into Nigeria from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI).

Moses Oguzi, assistant commander, EFCC, made this known at BusinessDay’s annual Future of Payment and Fraud Conference 2023.

“Most of them use the money to procure expensive vehicles. Many of the cars you see on Lagos car lots do not belong to car dealers. They buy expensive vehicles and ship them down. The money is stolen in Canada, USA and UK,” Oguzi said.

According to him, most times a cyber criminal who is part of an interborder crime syndicate defraud people in other countries and we get Intel from the FBI. FBI has been able to do a preliminary investigation traced to Nigeria.

Oguzi further said that in February 2022, the president signed into law the Proceeds of Crime Act (POCA) 2022. It helps in recovery of looted funds used to procure properties.

With the establishment of this Act, the EFCC will be able to recover the looted funds used in procurring vehicles.

“Once that fund is placed in an account. We approach that court for an interim forfeiture order and the court will oblige because we have been able to establish a link,” he said.

Oguzi noted that wire transfer fraud is the most common cyber fraud in Nigeria.

Meanwhile, Ade Bajomo, president Fintech NGR said that to address incessant cybercrime in Nigeria, there is need for more ethical law enforcement agents.

“The world is fast becoming intangible, criminals move ahead of law enforcement agencies, so there’s need to have more ethical law enforcement agents to catch up with them,” he said

APRIL 28, 2023

BY Shehu Salmanu | Wendy Bashi

April 25, 2023

Several African countries are evacuating their citizens from Sudan, but Nigerian authorities say they are finding it difficult to get their 5,500 nationals — mostly students — out of the country and into safety.

Rukayya Muhammad is a Nigerian student living in Sudan who needs to be evacuated as a matter of urgency. 

Thousands of students like Muhammad have been stranded in Sudan since fighting erupted between forces loyal to two rival generals struggling for power.

The conflict — now in its second week — has led to tens of thousands of people fleeing to neighboring countries.

Following a public plea for help by students like Muhammad, the Nigerian government plans to start evacuating nearly 3,000 of its nationals — mostly students — by a convoy to Egypt later this week.

"I am speaking on behalf of every student, we need help, it's very traumatizing ... we need the Nigerian government to do something, we appeal to the Nigerian government," Muhammad told DW.

'No response' from Nigerian embassy

Foreign countries like Germany, the UK, and the United States have all been rushing to get their nationals out of Sudan.

Nigerian authorities say they have now requested a safe corridor to evacuate 5,500 nationals, mostly students.

Muhammad said not much has been revealed about the so-called evacuation plans.

"I have contacted a few of the students' association bodies here about the situation, whether they have heard something from the embassy, but still they said there wasn't any response from the Nigerian embassy," she said, adding "I have sent them a mail, there also wasn't any response, we haven't heard anything from them."

When speaking to DW, Abdulkadir Mamman Tsagem, another Nigeran national in Sudan, stressed that he and his compatriots deserved to be treated with dignity.

"Considering the situation in Sudan that has forced many countries to evacuate their nationals, our people also deserve to be evacuated, because we cannot predict when the fighting is going to stop," he said.

Challenging evacuation plans

Nigeria's Minister of Foreign Affairs Geoffrey Onyeama said that the process of evacuation was quite challenging considering the sheer number of stranded Nigerians.

There is currently a 72-hour truce  in place, which seems to be holding. Onyeama hopes that talks with Sudanese authorities to allow for the safe passage of Nigerians out of the country to neighboring Egypt will be a success.

"We have been working round the clock for the last two days to try and get the Nigerians out," he said. "The only viable way out is by road, but of course, it's not totally safe, so we are going to require the government to provide some security and a safe corridor out."

South Africa, Ghana, Kenya and Uganda are among the African nations which have announced the evacuation of their citizens.

On Monday, Chad also announced that it would evacuate 438 of its nationals from Sudan, including students.

This puts extra pressure on the Nigerian government to treat the repatriation issue as urgent. But Onyeama said Nigeria's situation is unique because of the number of people involved.

"Our situation is particularly challenging, because the numbers are so great. So, essentially, where we are at the moment is trying to get authorization from the Sudanese government for them to provide some security," he said.

Fighting between the army of General Abdel Fattah al-Burhane, Sudan's de facto ruler, and his deputy-turned-rival, General Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, who commands the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), has plunged Sudan into a humanitarian crisis.

Sudan: Civilians suffer as evacuation efforts continue

01:52

Civilians caught up in the fighting

It is not only Nigerian students that are crying for help. Hundreds of other African students say they are unable to contact their countries' consular authorities.

Zenab Abdul Amine Issa, a student from Niger currently living in Al-Jazirah province, south of Khartoum, told DW she was concerned.

"We're so scared, we can't do anything. I am waiting to see if there will be a Nigerien evacuation. I don't have the number of the Nigerien authorities so I cannot leave. I have no one to tell the Nigerien authorities to evacuate me from here," she said.

Power cuts and destruction to infrastructure means is difficult for African foreign nationals stranded to seek help.

"There is no internet, there is nothing! We don't even have call credit to call people who are outside," Issa said.

The World Health Organization (WHO) said that violence in Khartoum and Darfur in the west has left more than 420 people dead and 3,700 injured — most of whom are civilians.

Health services interrupted

Many humanitarian organizations have suspended their activities, which means the plights of those stranded could worsen even further.

Five aid workers have been killed and, according to the national doctors' union, nearly three-fourths of hospitals are out of service.

Abdullahi Hassan, a Sudan and Somalia researcher for Amnesty International , told DW that the situation on the ground for health workers and aid workers is very troubling.

"Most hospitals in major cities, including Khartoum, have been closed. People have not been able to access them and no services are provided in these health centers," Hassan said.

"Doctors, nurses and other health care workers are targeted, and fear for their own safety. Doctors Without Borders reported that its own center had been looted and targeted. So, people who provide essential health services are not safe right now."

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has expressed concern that the violence in Sudan could spread throughout the region.

Edited by: Keith Walker#

APRIL 28, 2023

ABUJA, NIGERIA — 

Nigerian police are investigating the abduction this week of at least 29 people from a village in the territory of the federal capital, Abuja. Officials say gunmen raided Yewuti village, taking victims on foot into the bush, including children.

The attack has raised concerns about Nigeria's worsening insecurity just ahead of next month's swearing-in of Bola Tinubu as the new president.

Abuja police public relations officer Josephine Adeh said officials are looking into the matter and would make their findings public soon.

No group has yet claimed responsibility for the abductions.

But a local council head in Kwali where the village is located said the gunmen invaded after midnight Tuesday and shot sporadically before herding residents, including children, into the nearby bush on foot.

The attack has raised concerns of growing insecurity in the Nigerian capital nearly one year after the terror group Islamic State West Africa Province, or ISWAP, claimed responsibility for a jail break that freed hundreds of inmates, including high profile terrorism suspects held at a medium security facility in Abuja.

"You know abduction is a very sensitive issue," Adeh told VOA. "We're on it. … Whatever we're doing we can't put it out there because of the sensitivity of the issue."

Abuja has maintained relative peace for years despite Nigeria struggling to stem a range of insecurity problems, especially in the central, northwestern and northeastern regions.

But since last year, the capital has been reporting incidents more often.

Last month, local media reported gunmen invaded an Abuja estate and kidnapped nine people.

Security expert Senator Iroegbu said the trend is worrying.

"It's an unfortunate incident, the people we're talking about are Nigerians,” Iroegbu said. "No Nigerian deserves to be kidnapped and it still shows that government still has a lot to do; even within the city center there are a lot of crimes."

Despite this, Nigerian authorities say security officials are making substantial progress.

Insecurity was a major topic at the February polls in which Bola Ahmed Tinubu was declared winner. Tinubu will be sworn in on May 29. Iroegbu said Tinubu must take security matters seriously.

"Any incoming administration should know that the challenge is still very prevalent … so they have their work well cut out," Iroegbu said. "It should be a shift from the way the current administration are doing their things, improve where they failed and one of the areas where they really failed is the issue of security."

In 2015, outgoing President Muhammadu Buhari promised to address insecurity if elected president.

After years of being widely criticized for security failures, Buhari last week said, "Those that think that I have hurt them so much, please pardon me."

APRIL 29, 2023

The aircraft are already here. Pilot unions are preparing for battle. And the FAA is playing it cool. Autonomous flight is coming to civil aviation sooner than anyone thinks, and it may prove to be a surprising boon for flyover country.

InJanuary, Boeing CEO Dave Calhoun revealed an open secret in the world of aviation. “I think the future of autonomy is real for civil,” he told Bloomberg TV, before quickly offering some qualifiers. “It’s going to take time. Everyone’s got to build confidence. We need a certification process that we all have faith and believe in.”

The U.S. military has been flying autonomous planes for decades, of course, but always in a segregated airspace. Now it’s becoming increasingly clear that self-flying planes are coming to commercial aviation, and not in some distant Jetsons future world. Aircraft manufacturers are working toward it. Airlines are eager for it. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is preparing for it. And pilot unions acknowledge the threat is looming on the horizon.

A decade ago, the conversation was largely speculative. But today, many in the aviation industry believe that small, self-flying planes could be carrying passengers by the end of this decade. Then, barring no major safety incidents, it could take as little as another decade before larger passenger jets operate without a pilot on the flight deck.

“It’s all about money,” says Dennis Tajer, a pilot for 35 years and the spokesman for Allied Pilots Association, which represents 15,000 American Airlines pilots. “Manufacturers are looking for the next innovative technology to deploy so that they can sell it and make money, and airlines are looking at how they can do this more cheaply.”

It’s a charge that’s difficult to rebut. Six years ago, a report from the Swiss bank UBS estimated that autonomous planes could save the air transportation industry more than $35 billion per year. Still, the same report flagged a bright red public perception problem. A 2017 global survey found that a majority of people would be unwilling to fly in a plane without a pilot, even if the airfare were cheaper. The next year, a public survey from Ipsos found that 81% of Americans would not be comfortable traveling on a self-flying plane. Notably, that survey was sponsored by the Air Lines Pilots Association (ALPA), whose 65,000 members make up the largest pilot union in the country.

The introduction of autonomous aircraft into the civil aviation mix will begin with small cargo planes, led by companies like Xwing, a Northern California-based startup. “We took an existing Cessna airframe,” says Xwing CEO Marc Piette, “which is the most widely used express cargo airframe, and we’ve been modifying that vehicle to convert it to a remotely-supervised vehicle. We think the cargo market is the best first place to deploy this. And we’ve been very deliberate.”

For the past few years, Xwing has been running automated test missions, mainly in California. A flight plan is submitted, just as if there were a human pilot, and the flight’s parameters are pre-programmed before takeoff. “It’s really a one-click thing,” Piette says. “You engage the system and it runs its mission.”

Until the technology is certified by the FAA, however, there will need to be a safety pilot on board. This allows Xwing to fly without jumping through regulatory hoops. “The safety pilot can disconnect a system and revert the aircraft to manual flying, but otherwise doesn’t do anything but monitor the system. It’s a very boring job,” Piette explains. Meanwhile, the Cessna is operated from the ground, with one human controller watching a moving map on a screen and interfacing with air traffic control.

“All of these companies are really looking forward to the day where there will not be a pilot on board.”

Once the technology is certified, Xwing plans to introduce and operate these vehicles by late 2025 and then make it available to other operators. “To give you an example, FedEx has about 240 Cessna 208s for its U.S. network,” Piette says, alluding to the scalability of the venture. He expects his autonomous aircraft to be transporting human passengers by the end of this decade.

Xwing is certainly not the only manufacturer working on autonomous cargo aircraft, but it has a secret weapon in its chief compliance and quality officer. Earl Lawrence knows a thing or two about FAA regulations, having recently left the agency, where he was the head of aircraft certification. Prior to that, Lawrence had started the FAA’s unmanned office. “One of the key things of bringing this category of aircraft to the cargo market is that we are not changing the rules. We are following the regulations,” he says, noting that some companies in the space have made proposals that do not comply with FAA regulations. “That’s what significantly slows things down.”

Few people know more about autonomous aircraft than Stephane Fymat, who heads up Urban Air Mobility (UAM) and Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) at Honeywell, which has a long history producing autopilot systems for Boeing Dreamliners, Gulfstream and Embraer jets as well as other aircraft.

Fymat shared with Forbes a PowerPoint deck for a speech he has given at invitation-only industry conferences. After a brief introduction, a slide appears with six images laid out in a grid. Each shows an aircraft produced by one of Honeywell’s clients. Some are designed for cargo and others for passengers. In one photo, men are loading boxes into a cargo plane made by Slovenian light aircraft manufacturer Pipistrel, which Rhode Island-based Textron acquired last year. The plane does not even have a cockpit.

“Basically, most of them will start with a pilot now and move to having no pilot on board,” Fymat says of Honeywell’s partners. “A few of them want to do it within four or five years and some think it’s more like a 10-year range.”

One immediate advantage of pilot-free small planes is the increased capacity. Autonomy can immediately turn a six-passenger plane into seven-seater. “All of these companies are really looking forward to the day where there will not be a pilot on board,” Fymat says. “They’re all planning for it, in fact, and we’re helping them get there.”

“Cargo is an entryway drug for them,” Tajer says. “The script is to start with something that doesn’t sound like it’s going to hurt people. But the reality is that it’s still the same sky, and it’s still a metal tube in the air and passenger jets will be sharing the sky with them.”

Readying for Take Off

How self-flying passenger jets will be airborne by the 2040s.

2023

Various aircraft manufacturers are working with the FAA on certifying autonomous aircraft.

2025-2026

The first self-flying cargo planes will enter civil aviation, sharing the skies with piloted airplanes.

2030-2035

Small, self-flying planes will begin carrying passengers on short, regional flights.

2040-2050

Larger passenger jets will begin operating without a pilot on the flight.

For manufacturers, bringing new aircraft into the mix requires navigating the regulations of the FAA and the world’s other aviation authorities. “We have an application on an all-electric autonomous airplane that we refer to as Wisk,” Boeing’s Calhoun told Bloomberg. “That application is in and the FAA will begin working with us today on building out a certification program for autonomy and for Wisk. There’s so much to learn, so much to do, but it is being done.”

Some worry that the FAA may be too accommodating. “The FAA ebbs and flows between being a monolithic oversight authority to slowly, over time, becoming too cozy with the manufacturers and the airlines,” Tajer notes. “That’s a funding issue, it’s experience, and then it also can become a culture issue, which you don’t have to look too far back [to the 737 Max crashes], to see what happens when there’s too cozy a relationship. The FAA just needs to stand firm on delivering the safest possible system out there.”

During the pandemic, some airlines quietly lobbied the agency to amend what’s known as Part 121 of the Federal Aviation Regulations, which requires scheduled carriers to have at least two qualified pilots on the flight deck, arguing that a single-pilot approach would help alleviate the pilot shortage. The FAA’s European counterpart recently ruled against making such a change until 2030 at the earliest.

It’s a rationale echoed by manufacturers. “Look at the airliners that we fly in every day,” Fymat says. “They don’t yet take off by themselves. They don’t taxi by themselves. But once they’ve taken off, they’ll do the entire flight by themselves, and they will land by themselves if you wanted them to. Airplanes have been doing this for years.” He adds that it’s just a matter of time before jets can do it all. “Adding in the ability to divert and redo a flight plan because of an emergency or whatever, communicating with air traffic control, those are the next pieces. But the basics already there.”

Naturally, the idea of single-pilot flight decks doesn’t sit well with pilots. “They’re talking about taking out that backup human system,” Tajer says. “Having that second pilot can be the difference between people getting hurt or them getting through an incident safely. And that’s because no matter how much technology you have, the importance of having another human being who has as much at risk and is committed to protecting those passengers in the back is what makes our safety system so successful here in the U.S.”

Meanwhile, automation is advancing. “AI technology is a big opportunity to establish the next generation of products in the industry, the epicenter of really, really powerful core technologies,” says Arne Stoschek, the head of machine learning and autonomy at Acubed, an Airbus innovation center. At Toulouse Airport, near Airbus headquarters in southwestern France, the manufacturer is testing a suite of pilot-assistance technologies in a demonstrator it calls DragonFly. Much like how actual dragonflies can recognize landmarks while in flight, the aircraft’s systems use artificial intelligence and sensors on the outside of the plane to “see” features in the landscape and safely maneuver autonomously within its surroundings. To date, the capabilities include automated emergency diversion in cruise, automatic landing and taxi assistance.

In the near term, the greatest challenge for self-flying planes may be getting the public to accept them. Xwing’s Lawrence expects public perceptions to evolve with time. “As the technology gets rolled out, people will understand it better and trust it more,” he says.

Advocates point out that among the first beneficiaries will be people who live in rural locales far from major airports. “This isn’t just about getting somebody from downtown Wall Street to JFK in eight minutes flat, which is very valuable by the way,” Honeywell’s Fymat says. “It’s also about the rural community, who right now has no air service. Or the essential air service that they have is, like, once a week.”

Xwing’s Piette agrees. “The impact is going to be dramatic,” he says. “Among the reasons [regional airports] are losing commercial traffic today is that there’s a significant pilot shortage, which makes it very challenging to staff some of these routes. If you’re in places like Wichita or Louisville, good luck trying to find direct routes to wherever you want to go.” With a large volume of smaller aircraft, there can be a higher frequency of flights between any small-city destination pair, according to Piette. “And we can reinstate access to flights to small localities.”

Ultimately, Tajer argues, “it’s going to come down to whether people eventually get used to the idea. And I don’t know, but when you’re in the sky, and it’s noisy, and the aircraft is doing things you’ve never felt before, and nobody’s in the cockpit, you might be thinking, ‘I sure hope that kid down on the ground at the computer has got this stuff figured out, because my family’s lives depend on it.’ That’s a big hump to get over.”

MAY 01, 2023

By Prince Okafor

As a move to address the foreign airlines' trapped funds in the country, indications have emerged that sale of air tickets in dollars would reduce the backlog.

The development according to aviation analysts would also put an end to trapped funds in the country and address the fear of foreign airlines reducing their frequencies in the country.

Vanguard Aviation World gathered that foreign airlines contribute over 70 per cent of aviation earnings in the country.

It was also gathered that due to the significant rise of their funds trapped in the country over the past one year, they are mulling massive reductions in their frequencies to Nigeria. For instance, foreign airlines collect Naira for their tickets to customers and exchange the same for foreign currencies for their operations. But they have been lamenting their inability to get the exchange executed through the official foreign exchange market due to the scarcity of foreign exchange resources.

A breakdown of the trapped fund's movement shows that as of December 2022, the fund stood at $549 million. The airlines' fund later rose to $662 million in January 2023 and is currently at $744 million, an increase of 11 per cent when compared to the previous month.

Following the development, United Arab Emirates, UAE, the flag carrier, Emirates Airline operating over 21 flights, suspended its operation indefinitely in Nigeria in October 2022.

But in a chat with the Director, Research, Zenith Travels Limited, Mr. Olumide Ohunayo, he stressed that the suspension of operations in\ Nigeria by Emirates Airlines has a spiral effect on the allied services in the country to the airline.

"Apart from the Maintenance Repair and Operate, MRO, firm, other allied organisations to Emirates like hotels, catering services, car hire, security, expatriates, fuelers and other backup companies would be affected by the decision of the airline to quit the Nigerian scene.

"The Federal Government should take a cue from the Zimbabwean government, which allowed the foreign airlines operating into its country to sell tickets in dollars.

"Rather than insisting on naira sales for the airlines, dollar sales would reduce the challenge of blocked funds currently being experienced by the foreign airlines.

"The Federal Government should also merge the black market rate with the official rate, this would reduce the challenge. By and large, we should find a way out of this crisis. Zimbabwe was also affected and it has told the airlines to sell tickets in dollars."

"Even, the fuel suppliers are feeling the pains. Now, the fuel suppliers that refused to collect naira from Emirates are now collecting zero naira and zero dollars.

"So, we are all feeling the pain. I think the Nigerian oil companies should have collected naira, rather than insisting in dollars from Emirates and today, everybody on that value chain that gained from the services of Emirates are all down without jobs."

MAY 03, 2023

Nigeria's Aviation Minister Hadi Sirika has reiterated that Nigeria Air (NWB, Lagos) will begin operations before the end of the current administration on May 29, 2023, while the Abuja division of the Federal High Court has dismissed an attempt by the Airline Operators of Nigeria (AON) to have their case against the establishment of the new national carrier to be heard in Lagos.

Briefing media after a Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting in Abuja on April 26, Sirika echoed statements he made in March when he said the carrier would fly before the new federal administration takes office under the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) on May 29.

"Nigeria Air Limited, I did say that we will get it going before the end of this administration and I have not withdrawn my words. We have everything in place; the aircraft are in place, the offices, operational centres, the staffing and everything that we need to have in place. We're doing the last-minute checks and waiting for the issuance of the AOC [air operator's certificate], and it will fly. It will fly, and it will be for the benefit of this country, for the size of the population, the travelling public and what it does to the economy, especially to tourism, to African integration and for the AU Agenda 2063. It's a very important project, and I must say it will happen before the end of our tenure in the next four weeks and two days," reported Premium Times newspaper.

Meanwhile, The Sun newspaper reports on April 25, the Abuja division of the Federal High Court dismissed an attempt by the AON to stop an order by Chief Justice John Tsoho directing the transfer from Lagos to Abuja of the case in which the private airline organisation is challenging the establishment of Nigeria Air, the federal government's new joint venture with a consortium led by Ethiopian Airlines (ET, Addis Ababa).

In his judgement, Abuja Federal High Court judge James Omotosho dismissed the AON's attempt as "frivolous [and] unreasonable as it disclosed no cause of action". He awarded NAD1.5 million naira (USD2,172) in favour of the Chief Judge of the Federal High Court for having been "humiliated and harassed" in the course of his duties. "The plaintiffs cannot bring an action against the discretionary powers of the chief judge to transfer a case and re-assign the same. The chief judge acted in his judicial and administrative capacity and cannot be sued for his action. The action of the plaintiffs has not disclosed any reasonable cause of action. [...] This suit is frivolous, unreasonable and brought to humiliate and harass a public officer. I, hereby, award a cost of NAD1.5 million against the plaintiffs in favour of the chief judge," Omotosho said.

In November 2022, the Nigerian Federal High Court in Lagos granted the AON an interim injunction that prevents Sirika, the Federal Ministry of Aviation, Nigerian Attorney-General Abubakar Malami, and other defendants from continuing with the launch of the new national carrier. This followed a court application filed on November 11 by the registered trustees of the AON, including Azman Air, Air Peace, MaxAir (Nigeria), TopBrass Aviation and United Nigeria Airlines to have Nigeria Air's Air Transport License (ATL) revoked on the grounds that the carrier would be anti-competitive and damaging to domestic airlines.

MAY 03, 2023

More than 2, 500 merchant vessels or 50 per cent of foreign ships trading in Nigeria have exited the country’s waters in the last 16 months. Nigerian Chamber of Shipping (NCS) said freight rate increase to 70 per cent was responsible for the sudden development in the last one year. It was learnt that in order to compensate the increased transit times, carriers are adding additional vessels to selected services, which in turn has led to increase in the operational and cargo transport to West African ports.

Findings revealed that the in- crease in freight rate started in 2021 when Tilbury to Tincan/ Apapa ports was moved from 2,050 pounds to 2,670 pounds for 40 feet container and $5,310. Also, freight rate from Antwerp/Rotterdam port to Tincan/ Apapa was increased from €2,575 to €4,200. The President of the chamber, Aminu Umar, linked the development to the prevailing challenges in Nigeria’s shipping industry, saying insecurity and unfavourable policies were responsible for exiting foreign vessels from Nigeria waters.

He noted that the development had led to scarcity of ships in West African region, shooting up the freight rate. Umar said in Lagos that there was a more robust market for vessels in Europe than Africa due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. The President noted that between 40 per cent and 50 per cent of vessels plying the Nigerian waters had returned to Europe from 2022 till date, stressing that 40 per cent of the capacity had moved back to Europe.

Umar noted: “The truth is that these are foreign-owned vessels trading within the West African sub-region, which includes Nigeria. “So what it means is that it has created scarcity which will increase the freight rate. So the freight rate has gone up by almost 70 per cent due to this. There is a 70 per cent increase in freight rate, which went up to 100 per cent before but has reduced to 70 per cent.”

It would be recalled that be- tween December 2020 and 2021, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said that spot freight rates surged across routes in developing regions, explaining that on the Shanghai to South Africa (Durban) route, the rate per 20-foot-equivalent unit (TEU) increased from $2,521 to $6,450 , while on the Shanghai to West Africa (Lagos Port) route the freight rate increased from $5,291 to $7,452. It added that in Africa, between July 2020 and July 2021 average capacity fell by 6.5 per cent, leading to the increase in container freight rates, with one-way China-to-Africa rates increasing from $2,000–$2,500 to $4,000–$5,000 per TEU.

For Asia to Cameroon, the rate for 20-foot containers increased by 340 per cent and for 40-foot containers by 244 per cent. As regards to performance in cargo handling involving Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC), UNCTAD explained that Nigeria and Ghana had low performances, while other West African economies like Angola, Cameroun, Gabon and Equatorial Guinea showed average or higher performances.

It noted: “Between the third quarter of 2020 and the second quarter of 2022, the Liner Shipping Connectivity Index (LSCI) for Africa declined from 18.8 to 17.6. As shipping lines reassigned ships to the China-US routes, some states in Africa lost deployed capacity.”