MARKET NEWS

BY  Oluwatobi Ojabello 

Nigeria’s banking industry has just delivered one of its most remarkable earnings seasons in years. Despite a turbulent macroeconomic backdrop defined by volatile exchange rates, steep interest rates and unpredictable liquidity conditions, the country’s leading lenders reported one of their strongest nine-month performances to date.

What many expected to be a brake on profitability instead became the catalyst for outsized gains. As one analyst put it, “The results confirm what the market suspected: balance sheets are expanding, but risk appetite is not. Earnings are rising faster than loan books.”

“Trading revenue, fees and digital income provided additional support when credit demand weakened. The year rewarded banks with strong liquidity, fast repricing capabilities and well-run treasury units.”

The nine-month results of Access Holdings, Zenith Bank, UBA, GTCO and First HoldCo show a sector that has learnt not only to navigate instability but also to monetise it. In a year when macroeconomic signals repeatedly shifted, these banks converted volatility into the fuel that powered their income statements.

“The banks demonstrated that they can operate profitably even in unpredictable environments. But investors still want clarity on FX policy before re-rating the sector,” said Abdulbasit Shuaib, a financial market analyst at an investment bank.

Access Holdings finds strength in scale.

Access Holdings demonstrated how market size can convert instability into income. The group reported profit before tax of 616.25 billion naira and lifted net interest income to 1.26 trillion naira. Assets rose to 52.20 trillion naira, and deposits climbed to 33.10 trillion naira, confirming Access as the country’s largest bank by both measures.

The bank gained from rapid loan repricing and favourable yield conditions, although rising impairments and softer fair-value gains kept profit after tax at 509.47 billion naira. Even so, Access used the year’s unusual conditions to build earnings strength on a scale few competitors could match.

According to one market watcher, “Liquidity-rich banks were the biggest beneficiaries of the rate environment. The repricing of assets happened faster than the repricing of liabilities, and that created a temporary margin windfall.”

Zenith Bank delivers disciplined growth.

Zenith Bank produced its familiar combination of precision and balance-sheet discipline. It recorded 917.41 billion naira in profit before tax and 744.64 billion naira after tax, one of the strongest results in the industry.

With assets of 31.18 trillion naira and customer deposits of 23.69 trillion naira, Zenith used its liquidity position to capture yield from government securities as interest rates climbed. The bank’s long-standing focus on efficient pricing and treasury stability placed it in a strong position throughout the year.

UBA benefits from African diversification.

UBA relied on the resilience of its African network to produce steady results. The group reported 578.60 billion naira in profit before tax and 486.27 billion naira after tax. Assets rose to 32.49 trillion naira, and deposits reached 23.80 trillion naira, helped by growth across its multi-country operations.

Trading income and foreign currency revenues helped offset inflation pressure and liquidity constraints in parts of its loan portfolio. UBA’s performance illustrated the advantage of geographic diversification during periods of domestic pressure.

GTCO converts efficiency into outperformance.

GTCO delivered one of the most compelling outcomes of 2025. Although its balance sheet is far smaller than those of Zenith, Access or UBA, the group reported 900.80 billion naira in profit before tax and 745.28 billion naira in profit after tax. Assets totalled 16.66 trillion naira, and deposits were 11.85 trillion naira.

GTCO’s success came from strengthening non-interest income streams, including payments, wealth management and digital channels. These businesses allowed the bank to grow earnings even as lending activity across the sector slowed.

First, HoldCo maintains stability in a high-cost climate.

First HoldCo followed a steadier path. The group posted 566.54 billion naira in profit before tax and 440.40 billion naira in profit after tax. Assets stood at 26.40 trillion naira, and deposits reached 17.89 trillion naira.

The bank maintained earnings strength despite higher impairment charges and softer treasury income. Its performance reflected the underlying resilience of one of the country’s most established retail banking franchises.

Treasury income becomes the central engine of profit.

Across the industry, one trend became unmistakable. Treasury income was the engine of earnings in 2025. With interest rates elevated and markets experiencing frequent dislocations, banks increased their holdings of government securities and benefited significantly from both higher yields and tactical repositioning.

Trading revenue, fees and digital income provided additional support when credit demand weakened. The year rewarded banks with strong liquidity, fast repricing capabilities and well-run treasury units.

Rising risk costs reveal a subtle shift.

The same conditions that boosted earnings also produced higher risk costs. Impairment charges increased across the sector, reflecting borrower strain, currency pressures and the lingering effects of inflation.

The rise was most visible at Access Holdings but evident in various forms across other institutions as well. Banks gained from volatility but were also forced to set aside more provisions to protect asset quality.

A profitable year that leaves bigger questions ahead

Nigeria’s leading lenders have shown that they can convert unstable markets into strong profit. Shareholders have benefited from wider margins and expanded securities income. Liquidity has remained strong, and balance sheets have grown.

Yet these results raise an important question about long-term economic impact. As Abdulbasit notes, “The results are impressive, but they reflect an economy where financial markets outperform the productive sectors. Until credit creation rises, volatility-driven profit will not translate into inclusive growth.”

Most banks expanded their balance sheets significantly, but credit to productive sectors did not grow at the same pace. The earnings model that dominated 2025 was driven more by yield capture and trading opportunities than by broad-based lending to businesses that require patient capital.

This pattern works in a volatile, high-rate environment, but it is unclear how sustainable it will be once interest rates stabilise and currency markets normalise.

The next chapter for Nigeria’s banking sector

The months ahead will test whether Nigeria’s top banks can maintain earnings strength when volatility subsides. Their ability to shift from trading-driven profit to supporting investment, productivity and real-economy growth will shape the country’s broader economic outlook.

As Abdulbasit summed it up, “Nigerian banks are showing extraordinary resilience. But the challenge ahead is whether they can translate record profits into stronger credit growth for SMEs and the real sector.”

For now, the evidence is clear. Nigeria’s largest banks have demonstrated an uncommon ability to thrive in a turbulent financial environment. They have turned volatility into profit and uncertainty into opportunity. The task that remains is to extend that strength into a more stable economic cycle and contribute to building a more resilient Nigerian economy.

Oluwatobi Ojabello, senior economic analyst at BusinessDay.