Market News

(Bloomberg) -- Joy Alukkas, an Indian tycoon who built one of the world’s biggest family-owned jewelers, sees gold prices tracking higher over the coming years in response to a world hit by geopolitical and economic risks.

The US attacks on Iran and surprise retaliatory drone strikes on Dubai that struck the city’s airport and landmark Burj Al Arab hotel are just one of them.

“Whenever there is tension in the world, people naturally run to gold for safety. That can lift prices for a few days,” the owner of Joyalukkas Group said in an interview from Dubai, which he was visiting when the recent attacks occurred. “Over the next 2 to 3 years, unless the world sees real improvement in the bigger picture, especially around the US economy and wider geopolitics, I don’t see a meaningful correction. There can be dips, but the overall direction still looks upward.”

The comments underline how some of the world’s biggest accumulators of the metal view the recent volatility. Gold has surged more than 75% in a year to trade above $5,000 an ounce and hit a record in January. Alukkas, 69, says his close to 200 stores across the UAE, India, US and elsewhere are sitting on nearly 16,000 kilos of inventory of the precious metal, like bars and jewelry.

When gold goes up, the value of his stock — in some cases built up over decades — also rises, Alukkas said. That long holding history provides resilience against moves like 10% to 20% fluctuations. But on the flipside, he has to replace stock at today’s higher price.

“Working capital goes up, and every refill costs more,” said the entrepreneur, worth $5.8 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

To be sure, one regional event by itself usually does not push gold to a totally new level, Alukkas said in reference to the recent turmoil in the Middle East. For gold to move sharply and stay there, it needs bigger global triggers like what happens to US interest rates, the dollar, inflation, and global investor confidence, he said.

The attacks on Dubai present another problem, closing schools, forcing many to work from home and rattling the well-heeled expat population.

Even before then, demand has been growing for investment bars and coins, according to Alukkas. There’s a new trend for clients to buy silver 10-gram and 50-gram bars as an investment, whereas previously Joyalukkas sold mostly decorative silver ornaments including anklets and hip chains.