Market News

(Bloomberg) -- Bitcoin rose to an more than one-month high and broke through a closely watched technical level as digital assets start to catch up with gains in stocks and precious metals.

The largest cryptocurrency rose as much as 3.9% on Monday and traded at around $94,000 as of 4:32 p.m. in New York, after reaching the highest since Nov. 17. Ether also edged higher. Bitcoin’s advance came as gold, silver and equities gained as markets digested the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

Bitcoin surpassed its 50-day moving average for the first time since a crypto market crash started in early October, one of several indicators suggesting prices are on firmer footing. The token is up about 7% so far this year.

The arrest of Maduro has sparked fresh speculation about state-linked crypto stashes. In a note, Singapore-based crypto options firm QCP cited the market chatter about a potential Venezuelan “shadow” Bitcoin reserve as a financial workaround, while cautioning against over-interpreting the claims.

“The less tidy part is the chatter around a potential Venezuelan ‘shadow’ BTC reserve. With disinformation already swirling, treat reserve headlines with caution. Still, the strategic frame is hard to ignore: if any seized coins are retained, not liquidated, it tightens the market’s sovereign-accumulation narrative,” the firm wrote.

Political uncertainty fanned by Maduro’s capture by US forces late last week has failed to dent investor appetite for riskier assets like technology stocks, while driving fresh gains in gold and silver. US stocks pushed higher on Monday, led by tech stocks.

“People always tend to overweight the impact of geopolitical events in the short term and underweight them in the long term and these very, very slow moving changes take a long time to actually matter,” said Jake Ostrovskis, head of over-the-counter trading at Wintermute.

Bitcoin has in the past been touted as a haven in times of turmoil, while at other times it has moved more in line with stocks and other risk assets. The token tumbled 24% in the fourth quarter, a sharp break with gold and silver prices.

Its recent gains are being driven by so-called crypto-native firms, those specifically focused on digital assets, and an absence of selling by groups including Bitcoin miners, wealthy family offices and other big investment funds, said Sean McNulty, APAC derivatives trading lead at FalconX.

Tight Range

Bitcoin has been stuck in a tight trading range for weeks, missing out on a stock rally over the Christmas holidays and ending 2025 down 6.5%. It underperformed last year despite a raft of industry-friendly policies in the US pushed through by President Donald Trump.

On Jan. 2, investors poured a combined $471 million into the 12 US-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, the most since Nov. 11, adding to signs of a shift in mood.

Derivatives positioning is also heating up. Bitcoin’s perpetual futures funding rate, which measures the cost of borrowing to fund bullish bets, is at the highest level since Oct. 18, according to data from CryptoQuant.

“This is a market stabilizing, not accelerating,” said Timothy Misir, head of research at crypto firm BRN. “The coming weeks will determine whether fresh capital can translate into durable momentum or whether time remains the dominant force shaping price.”

Traders are now waiting to see whether Bitcoin can make a sustained break through the $94,000 mark, with $88,000 the key downside level to watch, according to McNulty.

Bitcoin options are showing that traders are setting their sights on a return to the $100,000 price level. Open interest, the number for outstanding contracts, in the Bitcoin options market has been clustered at the contracts expiring on Jan. 30, at the strike price of $100,000. The total notional value is more than double the second most bidden options contract — puts at the strike of $80,000 with the same expiry, according to data from Coinbase Global Inc.’s Deribit derivatives exchange.

--With assistance from Muyao Shen, Judy Lagrou and David Pan.