Market News

Günay Caymaz

• Gold’s rally might’ve stolen Bitcoin’s spotlight but that doesn’t mean the stage is empty.

• Bitcoin is just waiting for its cue — maybe a Fed pivot or profit-taking shift.

• Sideways could be the story for now — resilience in uncertainty is still a plot twist.

Bitcoin began the second quarter of 2025 attempting to establish a floor in the $83,000–$85,000 range, despite some downward volatility early in the period. While the rally toward new highs has lost steam amid global economic uncertainty, fundamental developments in the cryptocurrency market suggest Bitcoin may be entering a consolidation phase. The short-term downtrend that began to ease in March now appears to be transitioning into a sideways trading pattern.

Currently, Bitcoin pricing remains heavily influenced by geopolitical tensions, the Federal Reserve’s monetary stance, and trade moves from US President Donald Trump.

Macro Headwinds Apply Pressure

Statements from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and escalating trade tensions with China are fueling market anxiety. In his speech this week, Powell emphasized a wait-and-see approach on rate cuts, saying the inflationary effects of tariffs are still unclear. This caution added pressure to risk assets, including Bitcoin, which has stalled near the $85,000 level over the past week.

Meanwhile, the World Trade Organization has flagged Trump’s tariffs as a threat to global growth. These policies have dampened momentum across both equities and crypto assets, pushing some investors toward gold.

Could Gold Profit-Taking Benefit Bitcoin?

JPMorgan’s latest report suggests that, amid heightened volatility, investors are favoring gold over Bitcoin. As BTC struggles to clear $85,000, gold has surged to a record high of $3,357. Bitcoin’s tightening correlation with tech stocks in recent years has undermined its status as a traditional safe haven. Still, the broader narrative persists: US initiatives to build a digital asset reserve could stoke global demand for Bitcoin.

Despite ongoing global turmoil—especially since the start of Trump’s presidency—positive developments within the crypto space have quietly unfolded. Although overshadowed by macro uncertainty, Bitcoin has shown relative resilience, which may encourage investors to see it as a potential alternative safe-haven asset. If gold’s record rally prompts profit-taking, some of that capital could rotate into Bitcoin.

However, the Fed’s continued caution on rate cuts remains a key support for the weakening dollar—while simultaneously limiting appetite for risk assets like Bitcoin. A more dovish Fed later in the year, possibly under political or market pressure, could serve as a bullish trigger. But with inflation concerns still elevated, a policy shift remains unlikely for now. This uncertainty continues to make directional moves in the Bitcoin market difficult.

Market sentiment indicators show that crypto investors remain anxious. Still, one positive sign is the decline in selling pressure over the past month, even if strong buying hasn’t yet materialized.

Technical Picture: Sideways Within a Wide Range

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin appears to be entering a consolidation phase following its recent downtrend. The current range is defined by support around $75,000 and resistance near $86,000. An intermediate resistance level has formed at approximately $85,400 in recent sessions.

According to futures data, a break above $85,000 could trigger the liquidation of large short positions, potentially propelling BTC toward the $90,000 mark. However, if this resistance holds, key support levels at $83,500 and $82,300 could come into play. Maintaining these levels amid volatility would keep Bitcoin positioned to retest the upper end of its trading channel. Failure to hold could open the door for a drop toward $75,000, which remains the primary support based on current swing levels.

Outlook

Bitcoin continues to trade sideways, caught between macroeconomic uncertainty, global reserve narratives, and on-chain signals. Should volatility ease in global markets—or if gold’s momentum levels off—Bitcoin could see renewed interest.

In the coming weeks, the Fed’s rate path and Trump’s trade policy moves will likely be pivotal in shaping market direction. With the right catalyst, Bitcoin has the potential to break out of its current range. Without one, consolidation could persist.