Market News
Cocoa output to rise on improved investments - BUSINESSDAY
…As mid-crop production to defy late rains
"With what we have seen across major growing states, increased output is expected by at least five percent,” he said.
Sayina Rima, a cocoa farmer in Ikom, Cross River State, said the country would see a slight increase in its mid-crop owing to farmers’ efforts at reviving old trees and the fruiting of new trees planted three to four years ago.
“Most of the cocoa trees planted in 2022 and 2023 have started fruiting,” he noted, which according to him, would translate to increased production.
In line with Adegoke and Rima’s projection, the International Cocoa Organisation (ICCO) in its February 2025 bulletin, forecast a global cocoa surplus of 142,000 metric (MT) for 2024/25 – the first surplus in four years.
The ICCO also projected that 2024/25 global cocoa production would rise by 7.8 percent y/y to 4.84 million MT on high prices, which are incentivising farmers to put more effort and resources into cocoa farming despite challenges.
“High prices have been accompanied by investment in cocoa farms. The results are now seen in improved production in producing countries,” the ICCO said in its 2025 February Cocoa Market Report.
Currently, global cocoa prices have fallen to a three-month low after President Trump slapped punishing tariffs on U.S. imports last Wednesday as investors fret that the trade war would damage chocolate demand in the World’s top consumer of the beans.
Despite Trump slapping a 20 percent tariff on EU imports – the major blenders and buyers of West African cocoa beans – Rima believes that the tariffs rollout on countries would not weaken global demand for the commodity.
“The Trump tariffs rollout will not impact global cocoa prices because the U.S. focus is not on consumer goods,” Rima said, noting that the recent decline would be temporary.
A metric ton of cocoa declined 12 percent from $8,827 per metric ton on April 2 to $7,755 per ton as of the time of writing, according to ICCO data. Locally, the price of a metric ton has declined by 21.6 percent from N13.4 million in January to N10.5 million in April.
Nigeria is currently the world’s fourth largest cocoa producer, with 280,000 metric tonnes in the 2022–2023 season, according to the International Cocoa Organisation’s latest data on global production. Nigeria is the third largest exporter after Ivory Coast and Ghana.
The country has two cocoa harvest seasons which include the smaller mid-crop from April to June and the main crop from October to December.
The mid-crop accounts for about 30 percent of Nigeria’s cocoa output while the main crop accounts for the remaining percentage. Nigeria exported a total of N2.7 trillion worth of cocoa beans in 2024, a 593 percent increase when compared to 2023.
