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Currencies: $ weakens, cryptos fall after Trump speech - CERCLE FINANCE

JANUARY 20, 2025

Variations on the foreign exchange market were fairly wide-ranging on Monday, despite the US markets being closed for Martin Luther King's Day... which coincides with Donald Trump's inauguration.

A hundred or so presidential decrees (drafted a long time ago) are due to be signed this evening or tomorrow at the White House.

In his inaugural address, the President - who has just been sworn in - announces a state of energy emergency to boost hydrocarbon production and drive down prices... and revokes the "green" measures that curb oil exploration and pipeline construction.

He confirms the introduction of customs duties against countries exporting to the United States, notably in the automotive industry: he expects this to bring in 'enormous revenues' for the country's finances and an 'era of prosperity for American manufacturers'... but has given no indication of the amount of taxes he intends to apply (it could be on a case-by-case basis, and perhaps not monolithically).

He aspires to be seen as a peacemaker rather than a warmonger, but immediately afterwards, he announced that he wanted to regain control of the Panama Canal 'currently in Chinese hands'.
The scenario of a grace period on tariffs has clearly weighed on the Dollar, which is losing 0.9% towards 108.35.
The greenback fell -1% against the euro, which climbed to 1.0390, but slowed against the yen (which had made strong gains last week), gaining +0.3% to 155.80.

The day ends in disappointment for crypto-fans, who didn't hear Trump - who spoke of many subjects at his inauguration - say a word about adopting a favorable institutional framework for crypto-currencies, as well as their increased use for everyday settlements and payments.
Nothing about the creation of a "strategic reserve" in Bitcoin, whose price had soared in recent days to reach an all-time high on Monday, beyond the previous zenith of $108,000 (at $109.000 new record around 8.05 this morning) before correcting to $100,700 around 6.45 pm and recovering to $103,800 this evening... and Solana even lost -10% to $245 after briefly rocketing to $300 the previous day.

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NGN
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