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IMF projects Nigeria’s inflation to average 26.5% in 2025 - BUSINESSDAY
BY Eniola Olatunji
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that Nigeria’s headline inflation will average 26.5% in 2025, following a recent rebasing of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
However, the current Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) forecasts the inflation rate to cool to 15 per cent in 2025.
Nigeria’s inflation rate saw a decline to 24.48 percent from 33.2 percent in December 2024 after the change in methodology. In February, it saw a further moderation to 23.18 percent on track for a rate cut by the Monetary Policy Committee, according to analysts.
In a turn of events, March inflation printed higher a 24.23 per cent, the first increase since the change in methodology.
The fund projects a further spike to 37.0 per cent in 2026.
This forecast is contained in the IMF’s April 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO), which paints a cautious picture of Nigeria’s macroeconomic prospects amid reform-driven adjustments and external volatility. Despite a temporary slowdown in inflation, the Fund warns that price stability remains elusive.
