Market News

By Daniel Adaji

The International Monetary Fund has reviewed upwards Nigeria’s economic growth forecast for 2024 from three per cent to 3.3 per cent.

This revision was announced in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook for April, which was released during the ongoing 2024 Spring Meetings of the World Bank and IMF in Washington, United States.

The updated forecast marks an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous 3.0 per cent growth prediction published in the IMF’s January 2024 World Economic Outlook.

However, the IMF has taken a more conservative stance for 2025, reducing Nigeria’s economic growth forecast to 3.0 per cent, a slight decrease from the 3.1 per cent projected earlier in January.

Within the broader Sub-Saharan Africa region, the IMF has maintained its 3.8 per cent economic growth forecast for 2024 but has revised the 2025 forecast downward to 4.0 per cent, from the previously projected 4.1 per cent.

The global economic outlook also received a modest boost, with the IMF raising its growth forecast for 2024 to 3.2 per cent, up from the 3.1 per cent projected in the January 2024 World Economic Outlook. The forecast for 2025 remains unchanged at 3.2 per cent.

The IMF stated, “Global growth, estimated at 3.2 per cent in 2023, is projected to continue at the same pace in 2024 and 2025. The projection for 2024 is revised up by 0.1 percentage point from the January 2024 WEO Update and by 0.3 percentage point to the October 2023 WEO forecast. Nevertheless, the projection for global growth in 2024 and 2025 is below the historical (2000–19) annual average of 3.8 per cent, reflecting restrictive monetary policies and withdrawal of fiscal support, as well as low underlying productivity growth.”

The report further elaborates on the expected trends in various economies, saying  “Advanced economies are expected to see growth rise slightly, with the increase mainly reflecting a recovery in the euro area from low growth in 2023, whereas emerging market and developing economies are expected to experience stable growth through 2024 and 2025, with regional differences.”

Specifically for sub-Saharan Africa, the IMF projects an increase in growth from an estimated 3.4 per cent in 2023 to 3.8 per cent in 2024 and 4.0 per cent in 2025.

“This positive outlook is attributed to the diminishing impact of previous weather shocks and gradual improvements in supply issues. The forecast for 2024 remains consistent with the January 2024 WEO Update, as negative adjustments for Angola due to a contraction in the oil sector are largely balanced by positive revisions for Nigeria,” the report said.