Market News

The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has said the ongoing reforms could only have significant impacts on the people if they move the economy to the level it could grow sustainably at six per cent.

The body also said the agriculture and manufacturing sectors should be supported to drive the growth if the country were to have inclusive development.

The think tank also said the current gross domestic product (GDP) growth could not pull the people out of poverty, noting that the economy needs to grow at about six per cent for the people to feel the impact of the reforms.

Head of NESG Research, Dr Joseph Ogebe, in a presentation, which focused on the March 2026 Business Confidence Monitor (BCM) and the second quarter outlook at the weekend, acknowledged that the reform initiatives of the current administration have started yielding some positive results.

Highlighting positive trends in the GDP, exchange rate and moderation in inflation, he said the reforms have moved Nigeria from the crisis era to a stage where it needs to consolidate the gains of the reforms.

“If you compare our GDP growth in the pre-crisis era in 2023 and what we have now, you will see a big difference. We were doing about 2.5 to 2.9 per cent, but now we have moved up to about 3.9 per cent,” he said.

However, he said that three per cent growth will not reduce poverty.

“We need high growth”, he said, adding, “Not only high growth, but we have also seen a consistent trend over time in our growth pattern. The growth is not broad-based. And that trend speaks to the fact that most of the sectors that are driving growth are just three or four.

“The big question you ask yourself is what about agriculture? What about manufacturing? What about trade? What about construction? These sectors have not been growing. Manufacturing and agriculture grew by just 1.5 per cent and 2.2 per cent, respectively, in 2025. That is poor. These are sectors that have high capacity to actually produce more jobs.”

He said that with more jobs, livelihoods will improve and people will be lifted out of poverty.

He also said the structural weaknesses in the system must be fixed for the economy to grow.

Speaking specifically about fiscal stress, the research expert said debt service has increased by about 16.7 per cent.

He said fiscal stress must be fixed for the country to achieve high growth and consolidate the gains from macro-stability.

He advised against policy reversal, which he said could spell doom for the country.

With the ongoing crisis in the Middle East, some have suggested that the government should reintroduce fuel subsidies to cushion the effect of the high cost of fuel.

“We cannot afford to go back to the subsidy era, we need to consolidate on the reforms and make sure that some of these gains we’ve seen trickle down to the ordinary man in the street”, the NESG executive said.

Also speaking, the Chief Economist/Director of Research, Dr Olusegun Omisakin, said 2026 could be a make-or-break year for Nigeria, depending on how the country responds to the windfall that will result from increased crude oil prices because of the Middle East crisis.

“We should not just spend on recurrent items. The windfall should be directed or targeted at critical sectors, critical infrastructure and to shore up production,” he said.

Omisakin said beyond the fiscal gains from the crisis, there is also the downside.

“We expect prices to rise about one to five percentage points over what we have now. The transmission mechanism is clear. Everything that touches your fuel, whether it is PMS, AGO or DPK, will have effects on the prices of other products.

“And we have seen PMS prices increase about 15 per cent, and we have also seen diesel prices increase about 100 per cent. You know diesel is used by most of these vehicles to transport goods and services. So this also affects your prices”, he noted.

Speaking on consolidating macroeconomic stabilisation for sustainable growth, Omisakin said the government should find a way to lower the cost of living because of the effects of inflation.

One of the ways to achieve that, he said, is by increasing local productivity.

“We have to increase growth in productive sectors. One is agriculture. Agriculture should grow by six to eight per cent.

“Another area that requires serious attention is power. You cannot develop without power; power is very critical. We are doing about 5000 MW currently, but we need to move to around 7,000 or 7,500 MW before 2027 as we need this to power our SMEs and industrial sector, particularly manufacturing.”