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Nigeria will need an average annual growth of 38 percent to realise President Bola Tinubu’s $1 trillion gross domestic product (GDP) target by 2030.

President Tinubu has promised to build a jumbo-sized economy — aiming for a $1 trillion GDP by 2030.

During the 2023 presidential campaign, Tinubu had addressed business leaders at the Nigerian Economic Summit (NES) in Abuja, claiming that Nigeria’s GDP could grow to $1 trillion by 2026.

“Distinguished audience, a $1 trillion Nigerian economy is possible by 2026, and a $3 trillion economy is achievable during this decade. We can do it with double-digit, inclusive, sustainable, and competitive growth,” Tinubu stated.

However, the goalposts have shifted. The current target is a $1 trillion economy by 2030 — a projection some analysts describe as chasing shadows.

A Lofty Goal?

According to the World Bank, Nigeria’s economy was valued at $363 billion in 2023. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), analysed by BusinessDay, puts GDP for the first three quarters of 2024 at $134 billion. Based on this trajectory, Nigeria needs to add at least $866 billion between October 2024 and December 2030. This equates to increasing GDP size by 7.5 times within six years.

For such an exponential leap, the economy must grow by at least 8.4 percent quarterly. Using simple arithmetic, the $134 billion GDP figure must increase by 8.4 percent by the end of 2024, reaching approximately $145 billion. This cycle would then need to repeat every quarter through to December 2030.

From 2025 onward, annual growth would need to hit an ambitious 38 percent for five consecutive years to achieve a $1 trillion economy. This aligns with projections by Bismarck Rewane, CEO of Financial Derivatives Company. Speaking on Channels Television, he remarked:

“The economy will not reach $1 trillion by 2030. To achieve this, annual growth would need to average 40%, which is far beyond current capabilities.”

This had earlier been captured by Economy Post.

Historical Precedents

Does Nigeria have the capacity for such astronomical growth? Historical data suggests otherwise. From 1960 to 2023, Nigeria’s nominal GDP recorded only a few exceptional spikes:

It reported 156.18 percent growth in 1981, driven by high oil prices.

It recorded 89.11 percent growth in 1970, following post-civil war recovery.

The GDP growth stood at 75.27 percent in 1995, reflecting macroeconomic adjustments.

These growth spurts were largely tied to favourable oil prices, which were often followed by sharp declines. The early 2000s also saw nominal growth averaging 25 percent, fuelled by agricultural expansion and oil sector improvements. The National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy (NEEDS) report attributed this period’s growth to increased foreign direct investment (FDI) in non-oil sectors. Notable projects included Heineken’s €500 million investment in its largest global plant and British American Tobacco’s significant funding in Ibadan.

Despite these successes, such growth was neither consistent nor inclusive enough. Even during the 2002-2008 boom, GDP growth averaged just 25 percent, far below the 38 percent annual growth required today.

Current Administration’s Approach

The Tinubu administration has pinned its growth strategy on non-oil sectors and the expansion of domestic oil refining. While commendable on paper, implementation challenges loom large. Historical experiences suggest that such strategies often falter due to inefficiencies and weak policy execution.

Another cornerstone of this administration’s plan is the GDP rebasing scheduled for early 2025. While this could paint a rosier picture of economic output, it is unlikely to alleviate the plight of the 133 million Nigerians living in multidimensional poverty. As Rewane aptly noted, “Growth has improved from 2.6 percent to 3.2 percent, but it is neither inclusive nor impactful in the areas where people are employed.”

The Path Forward

For Nigeria to achieve meaningful growth, the government must recalibrate its ambitions and prioritise structural reforms. Ndiame Diop, World Bank country director for Nigeria, advised fostering labour-intensive, export-oriented sectors and supporting micro and small enterprises with accessible financing to scale into medium-sized firms. Such measures could drive inclusive growth and enhance living standards.

A $1 trillion economy by 2030 remains an aspirational goal. The Tinubu administration must balance optimism with realism to ensure any economic progress reflects positively in the lives of Nigerians, experts say.