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Nigeria’s mid-year tax revenue grew 43% to N14.27 Trillion, boosted by a 44.2% rise in non-oil taxes.

The federal government, on Wednesday, revealed that it collected a total of N14.27 trillion in tax revenues between January and June this year, in a massive 43 per cent increase from N9.98 trillion realised in the first half of 2024.

The revenue collection performance also substantially exceeded the baseline growth target of 16.4 per cent.

According to a report by the presidency, non-oil tax collection grew by 44.2 per cent to N10.64 trillion in June, compared to N7.37 trillion in the same period of 2024.

The revelation came as Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, welcomed Nigeria’s 2024 rebased Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, and the 3.13 per cent first quarter (Q1) 2025 growth estimate, describing both as important signals of the country’s economic resilience and renewed momentum.

However, analysts reacted to the rebased GDP estimates, which put the economy at fourth position in Africa, saying attaining the federal government’s target of a $1 trillion economy by 2030 is now a tall order.

Similarly, Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) urged the federal government to look beyond the optimistic figures and address the reality that a large portion of Nigerians were trapped in harsh economic conditions that had further imposed poverty.

The significant revenue performance in the first six months of the year was attributed to the effectiveness of revenue diversification initiatives, strengthened tax compliance measures, and enhanced enforcement strategies implemented by the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS).

The 2025 revenue target represented a 16.4 per cent increase relative to the total revenue collected in 2024.

Oil tax revenue totalled N3.63 trillion, representing a significant growth of 39.4 per cent over compared to N2.60 trillion realised in the corresponding period of 2024.

The report pointed out that achieving the annual target necessitated sustaining a baseline growth rate of 16.4 per cent compared to the corresponding revenue collections from the previous year.

The benchmark served as an essential reference point for performance evaluation.

An evaluation of revenue collection performance as of June 30, 2025 indicated an upward trajectory relative to the corresponding period in 2024.

The report said, “This favourable increase highlights the accelerated pace of revenue collection against 2024 and highlights continued momentum toward achieving the 2025 revenue target.”

President Bola Tinubu signed new tax laws last month aimed at lifting the ratio of tax to GDP to 18 per cent by 2030, from about 13 per cent currently.

In a statement issued by Director, Information and Public Relations, Federal Ministry of Finance, Mohammed Manga, Edun commended the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) “for its professionalism and technical rigour in delivering the rebasing exercise and quarterly GDP reports”.

He added, “These data tools are critical to designing policies that are grounded in reality and aimed at unlocking the full potential of Nigeria’s economy.”

In nominal terms, the Nigerian economy grew from N205.09 trillion in the base year of 2019 to N372.82 trillion, according to NBS, which released the rebased GDP and Q1 economic growth figures on Monday.

The GDP rebasing – Nigeria’s first since 2014 – was undertaken by NBS in line with international best practices, and represented a critical step towards more accurate, up-to-date, and comprehensive measurement of the economy.

Using the prevailing N1,529.53 per dollar exchange rate, the data showed that the economy was worth $243,526,768,148.72 in dollar terms, indicating that Nigeria trails behind South Africa, with an economy worth $410,338 billion, Egypt with $347,342 billion, and Algeria with $268,885 billion.

Edun stated that with the rebasing, the updated national accounts now better reflected structural changes in the economy, including the rise of the digital and creative sectors, increased activity in services, and stronger diversification across non-oil industries.

The minister stated, “The rebased GDP provides a clearer lens through which to view Nigeria’s economic performance. It allows policymakers, investors, and citizens to better understand the true size and composition of the economy, so we can plan more effectively and deliver greater prosperity to all Nigerians.”

The statement added that the rebased data revealed important shifts in the structure of the Nigerian economy.

It said, “Notably, the services sector—particularly ICT, finance, entertainment, and professional services—now accounts for a larger share of GDP.

“Agriculture and manufacturing remain vital contributors, while the role of oil and gas continues to decline in relative terms, underscoring the impact of ongoing diversification efforts.

“These changes are not just statistical—they reflect real transitions underway in the Nigerian economy. Our young, tech-savvy population is powering growth in new sectors, and our reforms are unlocking the potential of industries that were previously underrepresented in our GDP figures.”

Edun stressed that the evolving structure reinforced the government’s strategy of investing in productivity, infrastructure, digital innovation, and human capital to drive future growth and job creation.

He highlighted the 3.13 per cent year-on-year GDP growth recorded in Q1 2025, an improvement over the 2.4 per cent recorded in Q1 2024, saying it provides further evidence that the economy is gaining strength under the Renewed Hope Agenda.

Edun said, “We are encouraged by the broad-based nature of this growth, which is occurring across key sectors and supported by stable macroeconomic reforms. This trajectory reinforces our belief that Nigeria is on the path to rapid, sustained, and inclusive growth.”

With continued implementation of structural reforms, fiscal discipline, and targeted investments in critical sectors, the minister reaffirmed the government’s medium-term ambition of achieving a seven per cent annual GDP growth rate, in line with national development priorities.

He said, “Our goal is not just growth, but growth with impact, especially the creation of quality jobs. The new data helps us better track progress, refine our strategies, and ensure that economic expansion translates into more jobs, higher incomes, and better living standards for all Nigerians.”

Analysts reacted to the country’s rebased GDP estimates, which showed that its performance lagged behind South Africa, with GDP of $410.34 billion, Egypt $347.34 billion, and Algeria $268.89 billion.

Post-rebasing, GDP at market prices increased by 41.7 per cent to N205.09 per cent in 2019, from N54.2 trillion (prior to rebasing), and rose to N213.64 trillion in 2020; N243.30 trillion in 2021; N247.23 trillion in 2022; N314.02 trillion in 2023; and N372.82 trillion in 2024.

Analysts, who spoke to THISDAY, said given the unimpressive performance of the economy, achieving the current administration’s aspiration of a $1 trillion economy by 2030 had become a daunting challenge.

Economist and Chief Executive, Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr. Muda Yusuf, said the rebasing exercise was not as dramatic as many had expected.

Yusuf said the outcome showed that the country’s journey to the projected $1 trillion economy remained a tough call and a long way ahead, though the country would be inching closer to the aspiration.

He, however, projected the Nigerian economy to reach $400 billion by the end of 2025.

Yusuf said Nigerians now had a clearer view of the size and structure of the economy as well as the sectorial contributions to GDP.

He said, “We now know that the economy is bigger than what we thought, but not as big as many analysts would have expected.

“We have also seen some structural changes in the economy. For instance, we are seeing a much bigger role in the economy for the real estate sector that is now occupying the third position in contribution to the GDP, which is quite significant.”

Yusuf also said the result of the rebased economy would enhance Nigeria’s ranking in the global and African economies, adding that it is a good and welcome development.

He said, “Talking about the structure of the economy, before the rebasing agriculture was contributing 22.12 per cent but now we are seeing about 25.58 per cent.

“Industry before the rebasing was accounting for 27.7 per cent of the GDP. Now it is accounting for 21.08 per cent of the GDP.

“The service sector was 50.22 per cent, now it is 53.09 per cent. You can see the shift in the structure of the economy. The service sector is rising faster than the real sector.”

Yusuf added that in the past water transport was contributing less than one per cent of the GDP, but now it had risen by over 1,367 per cent.

According to him, “It meant that it has been grossly under-reported over the years. Now the activities of the Nigerian Ports Authority, Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency, National Inland Waterways Authority and Nigeria Shippers Council have now been incorporated into the GDP.

“It is also significant that the contribution of the informal sector has increased to 42.5 per cent, from 41.4 per cent.”

Yusuf stated that the latest rebasing of the economy would affect the assessment of critical issues, like tax to GDP ratio, fiscal deficit to GDP ratio, debt to GDP ratio, credit to the economy to the GDP ratio, and other issues that GDP is used to determine.

He stated, “So, from that point of view, it is good for economic analysis. It is also good for international comparison. By the time we adjust the GDP to accommodate the Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4’25, we will be moving closer to a GDP of $400 billion by the end of 2025.

“The factors responsible as stated in the report are growth in agriculture, real estate, water sector and the service sector that have increased significantly.

“But as to whether we will achieve the projected $1 trillion economy, that is a tough call. Given where we are now it is still a long way ahead. We may inch closer to it but it is still a long way ahead.”

Economist/Group Managing Director/Chief Executive, Bristol Investments Limited, Dr. Chijioke Ekechukwu, said the new GDP estimates showed the country still had a long way to go in achieving its target.

Ekechukwu said there was a need to industrialise the economy and boost agricultural productivity.

The former Director General, Abuja Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ACCI), said, “We have waited for the debasing of the GDP, and here it has come.

“Having a $243 billion economy after debasing tells us the magnitude of work yet to be done.

“The countries that are ahead of us have everything to justify their positions.”

According him, “When we check sector by sector, we will notice the quantum of work to be done.

“We need to be more industrialised, our agricultural productivity needs to grow and sustain our food security.

“The non-oil sector has driven the economy even when the oil sector is the major driver of our revenue.

“We need to rev the solid mineral sector, the gas sector, and the agricultural sector by having functional greenhouse farms in all states of the federation, which may be veritable alternatives, considering the insecurity in our conventional farms.”

Managing Director/Chief Executive, SD&D Capital Management Limited, Mr. Idakolo Gbolade, said the rebasing exercise was expected to increase the size of the economy with significant impact on macroeconomic ratios.

Gbolade clarified that rebasing of the GDP did not guarantee improvement of the standard of living of Nigerians or have a real impact on what the citizens were presently suffering.

He said, “However, so many factors, like tax to GDP ratio, which is very low, might be increased to match the new GDP.

“These activities would definitely have negative effect on ordinary Nigerians who are facing eroding income, high unemployment, high inflation and other debilitating factors.

“Economically, Nigeria’s GDP expansion is a step in the right direction to ensure that we take the positives that would enable us move closer to a $1 trillion economy by 2030.”

According to Gbolade, “The newly re- based GDP shows that there is a lot of work to do in non-oil revenue sector, which can make more impact in achieving the targeted $1 trillion economy.

“The federal government infrastructural development strategy also has to be fine-tuned to accommodate an economy of the size we envisage.”

Equally reacting to the rebased GDP, President of LCCI, Mr. Gabriel Idahosa, while addressing the media on the state of the economy, said, “Behind the optimistic figures lies our reality”.

He said, “Economic conditions have put a large portion of the population into poverty, inflationary pressures have continued to weaken our purchasing power, and rising cost of living has continued to rise.”

However, he pointed out that rebasing from the 2010 to 2019 base year had brought the country closer to global statistical standards, revealing a more diversified economy, where real estate, trade, telecoms, and crop production now dominate, while oil’s share continues to decline.

Idahosa called the federal government to action, saying, “The government must move from statistical celebration to strategic economic transformation.”

He said inflation had remained unrelenting and alarming, especially in the food segment of a country, as most household expenditure is food-related.

The chamber reminded the federal government of the clear advice of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that government should “recalibrate the budget, tighten monetary policy, protect the poor, and push deeper structural and institutional reforms to ensure that these macro gains translate into inclusive and resilient development”.

It urged the government to sustain the ongoing reforms and support identified growth-enhancing sectors like the power, energy, infrastructure, and services sectors in order to achieve the growth projections.

Idahosa also stated that LCCI observed that “the Naira’s depreciation, now hovering above N1,530/$, has severely diminished real incomes, while energy costs, from petrol and diesel to cooking gas, remain painfully high.

He said, “These pressures affect both households and businesses, worsening inequality and making daily survival a struggle for many.”

He stated that measures aimed at stabilising the Naira must be a top priority.

Ndubuisi Francis, James Emejo and Dike Onwuamaeze