Market News

BY  Grant Smith

The alliance’s output climbed by 363,000 barrels a day to just over 41 million barrels a day in February, according to a report from OPEC’s secretariat on Wednesday, preempting the group’s supply revival by two months.

Last week, the coalition led by Saudi Arabia and Russia surprised oil traders by announcing it would press on with long-delayed plans to restore halted output amid pressure from President Donald Trump to reduce fuel prices.

Some OPEC+ delegates have privately said that exasperation among the group’s leaders with persistent quota-cheats like Kazakhstan was a factor in the decision. Kazakh Energy Minister Almassadam Satkaliyev said on Friday that he has asked international oil companies including Shell Plc and Exxon Mobil Corp. to cut their output this month, but the nation has a poor track record of delivering on its commitments.

Kazakhstan’s production soared by 198,000 barrels a day in February to 1.767 million barrels a day, at least 300,000 barrels a day above its OPEC+ ceiling. Astana has consistently violated this target as it starts new projects such as the expansion of the giant Tengiz oil field.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners have been restraining output since late 2022 in a bid to stave off an oil surplus and shore up prices. Their decision on March 3 to finally green-light a series of production increases surprised traders, who had expected that faltering Chinese demand and brimming American supply would require yet another pause.

Oil futures declined after the move and have continued to weaken on concern that Trump’s tariffs will ignite a global trade war. Brent briefly sank to the lowest since 2021, but has since recouped some of its losses to trade near $70 a barrel in London.

OPEC+ has said it can “pause or reverse” the scheduled series of output increases depending on market conditions, and has just under a month to consider the next hike.

--With assistance from Fiona MacDonald.