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The companies getting rich off Trump’s war in Iran as recession fears grow - THE TELEGRAPH
The war in Iran has killed thousands of people across the Middle East, driven millions towards poverty and forced up energy prices around the world.
Even as Donald Trump insists a deal to end the conflict is within reach, analysts warn the consequences could push the world towards a global recession if disruption to the flow of oil continues in the Strait of Hormuz.
But as consumers bear the brunt of higher energy costs and rising inflation caused by the war, a handful of outliers are celebrating record profits from surging oil prices, renewed defence spending and frenzied trading patterns.
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The Independent reviews some of the main beneficiaries of the conflict in the Middle East.
Energy giants see huge windfall profits
The British oil giant Shell reported huge profits for the first three months of 2026 on Thursday, outstripping analyst expectations to rake in underlying earnings of $6.92bn (£5.09bn).
Q1 earnings were more than twice what the company reported for the fourth quarter of 2025 and 24 per cent higher year-on-year. Most analysts had expected the group to report profits of $6.36bn (£4.67bn).
At the end of April, BP released a similar report showing profits had more than doubled in the first quarter to $3.2bn (£2.4bn) due to surging crude oil costs exacerbated by the Iran war, which began on 28 February.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves stated the profits were precisely why the government extended the energy profits levy to tax windfall gains. Campaigners, including Greenpeace UK, criticised BP for profiting while households face rising fuel costs and impending energy bill increases.
Price increases from the war in Iran only compound historic rises inflicted by the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, and have resulted in households paying an additional £3,400 for their energy bills, on average, since late 2021.
Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has effectively closed the vital waterway, which usually facilitates around a fifth of the world’s oil and gas shipments.
War buoys security firms
Global instability is rousing profits for defence and security companies as state-sized investors look to replenish spent stockpiles and prepare for future confrontation.
The arms giant BAE Systems, the largest manufacturer in the UK, said on Thursday it was on track to meet forecasts for earnings growth of between nine and 11 per cent this year, as the Iran war keeps orders flowing.
Britain’s biggest defence contractor, which makes the Typhoon fighter jet, nuclear submarines and warships in Britain, has seen its order backlog almost double since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Its stock has soared by almost 300 per cent, buoyed by the prospect of more Nato spending.
“Around the world, security threats continue to grow, leading governments to increase defence spending,” the company said in its statement this week, adding that future orders are expected across the board.
The US software company Palantir, which specialises in data products used by governments for surveillance, intelligence and military purposes, saw its US revenue grow 19 per cent in the first quarter of this year, quarter-on-quarter. That figure was up 104 per cent from year-on-year.
At the height of the Iran crisis, the US used Palantir’s AI-powered defence system, the Maven Smart System, to identify and engage targets, Pentagon officials said in March.
As the markets tanked in the first few days of the war, the firm saw its stock rally 15 per cent. Investors bet large on the company as it ramped up its work with military and intelligence agencies, taking some 60 per cent of its revenue from government spending.
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Palantir supplies ICE with tools to track and surveil migrants in the US, and in 2024 signed a contract with the Israeli military to use its technology in support of ‘war-related missions’. In the UK, it is now looking to expand on some £600m in contracts with public bodies.
More trading benefits big banks
Uncertainty around the direction of the war has resulted in much higher trading volumes than normal, benefiting the big investment banks.
Last month, the largest bank in the United States, JPMorgan, reported a net income of $16.5bn for Q1. That figure was up 13 per cent from $14.6bn a year ago and more than $1bn ahead of analysts’ expectations, marking the second-best quarter on record.
JP Morgan joined Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Citi and Wells Fargo in reporting $47.4bn in first quarter profits last month. Goldman Sachs said its profits had jumped as much as 19 per cent in the first three months of the year, to $5.6bn.
London’s Big Five – Standard Chartered, HSBC, NatWest, Barclays and Lloyds – collectively recorded a pre-tax profit of £15bn in the first quarter of 2026, putting them on track to reap a total $58bn by year’s end.
Inflation fears have led central banks, including the Bank of England, to keep interest rates high, encouraging lenders to increase their income targets.
But the war in the Middle East has also created massive credit impairment charges. HSBC missed its profit target in the first quarter of this year, with growth offset by a $1.3bn credit charge. Around $300m was put down to the conflict in the Middle East.
