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With just over a month to go until Rachel Reeves’s second Budget, the Chancellor faces a bleak outlook. She has been under significant pressure to balance the books in the run-up to November 26, despite announcing a record £40bn in tax-raising measures in her maiden Budget last year.

In a research note, Berenberg said it expected the Office for Budget Responsibility to downgrade its upcoming 2029-30 economic forecast from a £9.9bn surplus to a £27bn deficit, thanks to increased borrowing, higher gilt yields and the reversal of two proposed spending cuts. This would result in the Chancellor needing to find £37bn in order to restore a wafer-thin fiscal headroom of £10bn.

Ms Reeves will be forced into a Budget “repair job” in November, in which she may raid at least 10 taxes for more than £40bn in order to avoid breaching her fiscal rules, the merchant bank has claimed.

The Government has pledged that tax revenues will outweigh day-to-day spending by the final year of this Parliament. But Ms Reeves is also restricted by Labour’s manifesto pledges, which rule out increasing income tax, National Insurance or VAT.

In its single prediction of a spending cut, Berenberg said the Government could raise an additional £3bn with a second attempt at welfare reform. The Government agreed to last-minute concessions in order to pass its initial welfare bill, cutting the amount saved from £5.5bn to just £2.5bn.

The bank added that political risks could overshadow any attempts at tightening fiscal policy.

It said: “Having raised state spending to its highest level since the Second World War outside of recessions in a post-election spending splurge, the Labour Government now plans to restrain it so that it declines as a share of GDP.

“We expect the Office for Budget Responsibility to predict that the Government would miss its fiscal target by £27bn in 2029-30 without remedial action.

“Restoring a £10bn margin for error would imply £35bn-40bn of tax rises and spending cuts.”

The note presented 10 tax changes that, in addition to the welfare spending cut, could raise £44bn. Here, they are listed in order of likelihood:

1. Extending the freeze on income tax and National Insurance thresholds: £10bn

Income tax and National Insurance thresholds were frozen by the Conservatives in April 2022 for four years until 2026, and were further extended by two years to 2028. It has resulted in 4.1m more people paying higher rates of income tax.

In her previous Budget, the Chancellor said the freeze would end as planned in 2028. However, extending the freeze to the end of this Parliament in 2030 would raise significant revenues.

2. Equalising small business rates: £3bn

Before 2023, all businesses paid the same rate of corporation tax. However, then-Chancellor Jeremy Hunt introduced a “small profits rate” for businesses making less than £50,000 a year, currently set at 19pc.

Businesses with profits in excess of £250,000 pay 25pc, while marginal relief is available for businesses earning between those two figures.

Making changes to the small business rate, such as equalisation, would generate billions.

3. New bank tax: £6bn

The Bank of England is currently losing vast amounts of money as a result of how it has implemented quantitative easing (QE) since the global financial crisis. During the summer, a Blairite think tank proposed imposing a new tax on banks inspired by Margaret Thatcher’s 1981 deposit tax, which took a cut of windfall profits made by lenders.

By charging a levy on reserves held by the biggest banks at the central bank, which ballooned in the past 15 years because of QE, the Treasury could raise around £6bn per year, although the think tank’s estimates put this as high as £8bn.

4. Reform of gambling duty: £1bn

Gordon Brown, former prime minister and chancellor, has been vocal on the topic of increasing tax on gambling companies, which he sees as a revenue source for lifting children out of poverty.

The changes mooted include increasing Remote Gaming Duty from 21pc to 50pc, which would hit online casinos. Machine Games Duty, which is levied on slots and gaming machines, and General Betting Duty, could also rise.

The Government has ruled out any increases to racecourse betting levies.

5. Council tax reform: £5bn

Council tax is currently based on home valuations in 1991, which can cause the owners of more modest homes to pay the most in percentage terms. A revaluation, or the addition of new bands, would generate a substantial windfall for the Chancellor.

As of April, the nil-rate band for stamp duty was halved from £250,000 to £125,000, with first-time buyer relief dropping from £425,000 to £300,000. The Chancellor also increased the levy on second homes from 3pc to 5pc in her previous Budget, but further changes cannot be ruled out.

6. Abolish capital gains tax relief at death and introduce an exit tax: £4bn

Under current rules, the value of someone’s assets is “uplifted” to the market value when they die. Removing this exemption would mean anyone who inherits them would have to pay capital gains tax on any increase in value that occurred during the deceased’s life.

Charging capital gains tax when someone leaves the UK, similar to levies employed in Canada and Australia, would also boost the tax haul.

7. Raise income tax by 2pc, and reduce employee NI by 2pc: £6bn

Despite pledging not to increase income tax or National Insurance on “working people” this Parliament, the Chancellor changed National Insurance contributions for employers. The rise, from 13.8pc to 15pc, was slammed by critics as the “death of the pay rise”.

By adding two percentage points to income tax bills, while simultaneously reducing National Insurance by the same amount, Ms Reeves would raise billions without a working-age employed individual paying any more in tax.

However, the move would disproportionately affect those who don’t pay National Insurance – namely pensioners, landlords and low earning self-employed people.

8. Quadruple National Insurance on higher self-employed incomes: £2bn

Self-employed people don’t pay National Insurance contributions until they make £12,570 in profit. They pay 6pc on any profits between £12,570 and £50,270, and then at a rate of 2pc over that amount.

Increasing the amount paid on profits in excess of £50,270 to 8pc would yield extra revenue for the Chancellor.

9. More businesses to pay VAT: £2bn

Under current rules, businesses don’t pay VAT until their turnover exceeds £90,000 a year. Lowering the threshold would bring more businesses into the VAT net.

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10. Raise basic income tax rate on dividends: £2bn

Anyone who owns shares in a company can currently earn £500 in dividends before tax is payable on that income. After that, the amount of dividend tax payable depends on the person’s income tax band.

Basic rate payers are charged 8.75pc, but increasing this to 16.5pc would add to the Government’s coffers.Tax compliance measures, focusing on small business corporation tax: £3bn

Before 2023, all businesses paid the same rate of corporation tax. However, then-chancellor Jeremy Hunt introduced a “small profits rate” for businesses making less than £50,000 a year, currently set at 19pc.

Businesses with profits in excess of £250,000 pay 25pc, while marginal relief is available for businesses earning between those two figures.

Making changes to the small business rate, such as equalisation, would generate billions.

The Government has largely declined to make any firm commitments before the Budget and does not tend to comment on speculation.