MARKET NEWS
Suspension of petrol import licenses by NMDPRA generates mixed reactions - DAILY TRUST
ByA bdullateef Aliyu, Lagos and Faruk Shuaibu (Abuja)
The decision by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) to suspend the issuance of import licences for Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) has sparked mixed reactions among industry stakeholders and marketers.
The regulator’s move, which it attributed to the increasing domestic supply of petrol from local refineries, is aimed at reducing reliance on imported fuel and strengthening the country’s refining capacity.
The NMDPRA announced the development in its February 2026 ‘State of the Midstream and Downstream Fact Sheet’.
According to the data, no import licences were issued in February while Dangote refinery supplied an average of 36.5 million litres of petrol daily to the domestic market.
However, imports averaging 3 million litres per day — the lowest level in a year — were still supplied to the market.
According to the report, no new import licences were issued during the month, while the Dangote Refinery supplied an average of 36.5 million litres of petrol daily to the domestic market.
However, while some stakeholders have welcomed the development as a step toward energy independence, others have raised concerns about the potential impact on fuel availability and price stability.
‘Dangote needs encouragement’
Industry analysts who support the decision say the suspension reflects growing confidence in the ability of local refineries to meet Nigeria’s petrol demand.
Speaking with our correspondent, Dr. Marcel Okeke, an industry analyst welcomed the decision by the NMDPRA, saying Dangote Refinery needs all the support and encouragement.
He said, “Dangote needs all the motivation so that if they are really doing what they ought to do through the naira for crude and everything is denominated in naira here, we would have less problem.
“What that means is that those people who would be putting pressure on naira to get more dollars to keep importing, that will end. If they no longer encourage people to keep importing and encourage local refining, that is the right way to go.”
Okeke allayed the fears of monopoly, saying apart from Dangote Refinery, there are other smaller refineries and modular refineries across the country.
He also charged the federal government to do everything possible to “either bring back public refineries or hand them over to private hands.”
However, a major marketer who spoke with our correspondent on the condition of anonymity faulted the move by the NMDPRA, saying the decision is not in the interest of Nigeria.
According to him, the figure being published by the NMDPRA does not tally.
He said, “Go and look at that report, it will tell you how much Dangote put into the market in February. I believe it went down from January to 36m litres per day. That report also tells you what the country’s consumption is per day. I think it also went down in February to 56m per day. The long and short of this is that the regulator needs to explain this. So it is not true what they have said and it is not fair to Nigeria.”
Speaking with Daily Trust, a renowned professor of petroleum economics, Prof. Wumi Iledare, said the announcement by NMDPRA suspending the issuance of new petrol import licences, on the grounds that local production is sufficient to meet domestic demand, is a significant policy signal in Nigeria’s evolving downstream petroleum market.
He, however, said such announcements can also trigger market speculation because in a transitioning market structure, participants may interpret regulatory signals differently, leading to strategic positioning and, in some cases, scrambling for market power.
He noted that this behaviour can manifest through precautionary stockholding, opportunistic pricing, or attempts to secure logistical and supply advantages.
“The data showing reduced imports alongside lower overall PMS supply in February suggests that the market is still searching for equilibrium between domestic refining output, inventory management, and distribution capacity.
“For policy effectiveness, regulatory communication must therefore be clear, predictable, and supported by verifiable supply assurance mechanisms. Market confidence improves when participants are certain that domestic production, logistics infrastructure, and pricing frameworks can consistently sustain national demand.”
He added that ultimately, the goal should be competitive market stability — not just import substitution.
NMDPRA spokesperson, George Ene-Ita, confirmed that the authority has not issued new import licences, as local production is currently sufficient to meet domestic supply needs.
“At this moment, there is no need to import because local production is meeting supply. When there is a shortfall, we will issue licensing to buffer local production,” Ene-Ita was reported as saying.
