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Africa in 2026: Can growth engines Nigeria and South Africa stay the course? - THE AFRICA REPORT
Nigeria’s test is whether reforms survive social pressure and the run-up to the 2027 elections. South Africa’s test is whether a coalition can deliver growth-enhancing change without collapsing.
Africa’s two powerhouses – South Africa and Nigeria – have spluttered back to life as we predicted in 2024. The risk is not that they stop tomorrow; it is that, without deeper institutional roots, they slip back into the old pattern: a burst of speed followed by a familiar stall.
For a decade, these industrial hopefuls looked stuck in neutral. Nigeria had oil and people but lacked enough dollars, electricity and trust in policy. South Africa had deep capital markets but suffered from weak growth and rolling blackouts. In 2025, both have started to look less like cautionary tales and more like works in progress. Ratings agencies have noticed. The question is whether the momentum can survive politics, vested interests and the next external shock.
