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Euro Falls to Five-Month Low as ECB-Fed Divergence Looms Large - BLOOMBERG

APRIL 12, 2024

BY  Vassilis Karamanis and Naomi TajitsuBloomberg News

, Bloomberg

(Bloomberg) -- The euro fell to its lowest level this year as the European Central Bank looks set to cut interest rates before the Federal Reserve.

The common currency dropped as much as 0.5% to $1.0676 on Friday, the weakest since November. It’s on track to its biggest weekly decline against the dollar in nearly a year, down 1.5%.

The moves follow ECB officials’ confirmation they are undeterred by the more cautious outlook in the US — where a hot inflation reading spurred a major hawkish repricing Wednesday. That led traders to stick to wagers that policymakers will deliver a quarter-point cut in June. 

Meanwhile, money markets pushed back the expected start date for the Federal Reserve’s easing by one meeting to September. This has sent the yield spread between two-year Treasuries and German bonds to the highest level this year.

Read more: It’s Time for the ECB to Diverge From the Fed, Stournaras Says

“The euro’s fall to $1.07 is telling us that a June rate cut is the current thinking. A break of that level will be an important step on the road to $1.05,” said Brad Bechtel, head of FX at Jefferies in New York. The euro will likely hit that level around the time that the ECB starts to ease, he added.

Options traders are increasingly bearish on the euro, with one-month risk reversals — a barometer of market positioning — moving to the most dollar-bullish levels since October. 

Also April data from the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation suggest low conviction that the euro could weaken much below the psychological support level of $1.05.


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