English>

Market News

Euro zone inflation edges up in August, pointing to steady ECB rates for now - REUTERS

SEPTEMBER 02, 2025

BY Balazs Koranyi


FRANKFURT (Reuters) -Euro zone inflation edged up a touch in August, staying close to the ECB's 2% target and likely firming up market bets that interest rates will remain unchanged in the near term, even if the rate cut debate could still simmer.

Price growth, the European Central Bank's primary focus, has slowed sharply in recent years and has been on target for months, a rare success for the bank which undershot its mark for a decade before the pandemic, only to struggle with runaway prices in subsequent years.

Inflation in the 20 nations sharing the euro picked up to 2.1% last month from 2.0% in July, just above expectations for 2.0% in a Reuters poll, on a rise in unprocessed food prices and a smaller drag from lower energy costs, data from Eurostat showed on Tuesday.

A more closely watched figure on underlying prices, which exclude volatile food and fuels prices, meanwhile held steady at 2.3%, above expectations for a fall to 2.2%, even as crucial services inflation continued to slow to 3.1% from 3.2%.

"The descent in services will continue, helped by cooling wage growth," Riccardo Marcelli Fabiani at Oxford Economics said. "Favourable prices in international markets and a stronger euro will keep energy inflation negative and lower imported costs."

The figures confirm the ECB's own projection for inflation to oscillate around target through the end of the year, as muted goods inflation and moderating energy prices offset still robust growth in the price of food and services.

This relative calm in price growth is why markets expect steady interest rates in the coming months, even if policymakers are still likely to debate whether more easing may be needed on top of the two percentage points of rate cuts made since mid-2024.

Such a debate could pick up pace in early 2026 as price growth is expected to undershoot the 2% target, albeit temporarily, raising worries that too low inflation could get entrenched, much like it did in the pre-pandemic years.

For now, markets see just a one-in-four chance of a rate cut by December but pricing goes above 50% by early spring, suggesting that a debate on more easing is far from over.

Anticipating this, ECB board member Isabel Schnabel argued on Tuesday that risks to inflation were actually skewed towards higher readings and she saw no risk of price growth getting stuck under target since economic growth was healthy and trade turmoil would exert upward pressure on costs.

"It is important to acknowledge that we cannot fine-tune inflation in a way that it is always at 2% in a shock-prone world," Schnabel told Reuters. "We can tolerate moderate deviations of inflation from target in either direction."


SEE HOW MUCH YOU GET IF YOU SELL

NGN
This website uses cookies We use cookies to personalise content and ads, to provide social media features and to analyse our traffic. We also share information about your use of our site with our social media, advertising and analytics partners who may combine it with other information that you've provided to them or that they've collected from your use of their services
Real Time Analytics