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Gold Will Shine in Bearish Year Ahead for Commodities, ING Says - BLOOMBERG
(Bloomberg) -- Tensions between the US and China may weigh on energy and commodities markets next year, while the outlook remains bright for gold, ING Groep NV said.
President-elect Donald Trump’s pledges to slap tariffs on trading partners, and possible retaliation, could roil markets including oil, metals and agriculture as traders also look to stimulus measures from China to boost consumption, the lender said in its 2025 outlook.
“We see large parts of the complex edging lower in 2025 with relatively comfortable supply and demand balances,” Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said in the report. “The potential for an escalation in trade tensions is a downside risk, while markets are waiting to see if and when Chinese support measures feed their way into commodity markets.”
While Trump is unlikely to move the needle much on US oil production, crude is set to come under pressure from strong non-OPEC supply growth, and ING sees Brent slipping to an average of $71 a barrel next year, from current levels around $74. Meanwhile, new US LNG export plants are likely to lift domestic demand and prices while allowing Europe to more easily offset Russian supplies, leading to lower natural gas prices in the region assuming a normal winter.
Gold is set to continue this year’s streak of hitting consecutive records on geopolitical concerns, ING said, with prices averaging $2,760 an ounce in 2025 from current levels of around $2,713. Most of the buying will come from central banks looking to diversify their foreign reserves, while increased trade and geopolitical friction could add to bullion’s haven appeal.
The outlook for industrial metals is murkier, with trade moves, potential changes to Biden’s climate laws and Chinese demand all likely to play a role, ING said. Copper is set to average $8,900 a ton in 2025, versus current levels above $9,200. Grains are likely to be a key target in any disputes, while weather concerns continue to put pressure on soft commodities, with prices of cocoa and coffee set to fluctuate further next year.
