Market News

By Steve Agbota

Sea Empowerment and Research Center (SEREC) has said that the absence of a national shipping line is costing Nigeria an estimated N1.8 trillion every year.

It added that over $15 billion has been lost in the last few years. The group warned that the situation is eroding maritime earnings, deepening revenue leakages and limiting Nigeria’s control over its trade routes and called for urgent policy action to reverse the trend.

SEREC made the disclosure in a policy advisory and press intervention titled: “Nigeria’s Maritime Crossroads: Quantifying the Cost of Policy Gaps and Unlocking a N3–N5 trillion Blue Economy Opportunity,” issued by the Head of Research, SEREC, Eugene Nweke.

Nweke said that Nigeria’s maritime sector is currently operating below its economic potential, adding that logistics inefficiency costs to trade is valued at 20% to 30% of cargo value.

However, he said that port-related delays cost about $7 to $10 billion annually and recorded annual revenue leakage between N1.2 trillion and N1.8 trillion.

According to him, the untapped inland waterway value (barge economy) is valued at N500 billion to N1 trillion.

“These figures underscore a fundamental reality: Nigeria is not just underperforming, it is incurring avoidable economic losses at scale,” he said.

Revisiting the structural failure, he said that the reflections by former President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan on the collapse of the Nigerian National Shipping Line highlight a historical misstep that, in today’s value terms, can be conservatively estimated as fleet investment losses (historic value adjusted) to $500 million – $1 billion while opportunity cost of lost national carrier capacity (over 30 years) valued between $10 – $15 billion.

On empirical gaps in current maritime discourse, SEREC noted that recent industry discussions failed to address the financial implications of key issues.

“Thus, our analysis provides the missing economic layer: Port inefficiency cost model, average cargo dwell time in Nigeria: 18–25 days, global benchmark between 3–7 days, and estimated cost per container delay: $200– $400/day, annual economic loss from delays: $3 – $5 billion.

“Infrastructure concentration risk (Lagos Ports), over 70% of Nigeria’s seaborne trade passes through Lagos ports, estimated congestion cost: Truck turnaround delays: N250 billion annually, supply chain disruptions: N500 billion- annually, cost of manual and fragmented port processes, human interface in cargo clearance increases cost by 15%–25% per transaction and annual leakages and informal charges estimated at: N300 – N600 billion annually,” he said.

Meanwhile, he said the neglected opportunity in the barge sector is valued at N1 trillion, saying that despite its strategic importance, the barge sector remains underutilised.

On the SEREC empirical estimate, he said that the current utilisation level of the barge sector is valued at 30% of potential capacity, while total annual throughput via barges is between 80 and 120 million tonnes, saying that an estimated annual economic value is worth between N500 billion and N1 trillion.

He added: “Operational impact of barge if optimised: Reduce port congestion by 30%–40%, cut cargo evacuation cost by 20%–35%, save Nigerian roads over N200 billion annually in maintenance costs.”

He argued that barging represents Nigeria’s fastest, cheapest, and most scalable logistics solution-yet remains policy-neglected.

He said that Blue Economy policy must translate from document to economic engine, adding that the creation of the Federal Ministry of Marine and Blue Economy signals intent, but intent must translate into measurable economic output.

SEREC projected that if the policy in the blue economy is effectively implemented, Nigeria can generate between N3 – N5 trillion annually within 5–7 years, create 2–3 million direct and indirect jobs and can add 15%–20% contribution to non-oil GDP.

Strategic policy failures identified, he pointed out the absence of financial modelling in maritime planning, weak prioritisation of inland waterways and barge systems, a lack of a coordinated execution framework for national policy, continued reliance on Lagos-centric port operations, and low adoption of automation and digital systems.

SEREC reform recommended establishing a maritime economic intelligence framework, annual maritime GDP contribution tracking, real-time monitoring of trade cost indicators, mandatory ROI analysis for all maritime projects, launching a N500 billion National Barge Development Fund, public-private financing model and fleet expansion, terminal development, and regulatory support.

SEREC also recommended that there is a need to target 50% cargo evacuation via inland waterways within 5 years, deploy the National Marine and Blue Economy Policy as a rolling investment plan, and convert the policy into an annual budget-linked execution roadmap.