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Goldman predicts more gold price gains as Trump tariff fears swirl - YAHOO FINANCE

FEBRUARY 18, 2025

Gold's (GC=F) glittering run in 2025 may have more room to rise higher, Goldman Sachs believes.

On Tuesday, the investment bank lifted its year-end price target for gold to $3,100 an ounce, from $2,890 previously. Goldman says "structurally higher" central bank demand will add 9% to the price of gold by the end of the year, also helped by a slight boost from ETF holdings.

But Goldman adds that concerns about President Trump's tariffs could be an "upside" risk to gold prices.

"However, if policy uncertainty — including tariff fears — stays high, higher speculative positioning for longer could push gold prices as high as $3,300 an ounce by year-end," Goldman strategist Lina Thomas said in a note to clients.

Precious metals such as gold are currently having a solid ride some two months into the year, as investors hedge their exposure to stocks amid uncertainty over policy from the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve.

Year to date, gold prices are up 9.7%% to $2,925 an ounce. They are hovering around record highs. Over the past year, gold has gained an impressive 43%. By comparison, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) are up over 20% and 15%, respectively.

Meanwhile, silver (SI=F) prices are over 40% higher for the year, and platinum (PL=F) prices are up more than 10%.

Stocks exposed to the gold trade have subsequently come on strong.

Shares of gold miner Barrick Gold (GOLD) have gained 16% year to date. At the same time, the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) has tacked on 10%.

The miner posted its highest net earnings in a decade last year. Operating cash flow in the fourth quarter rose 18% to $1.4 billion, bringing the total for the year to $4.5 billion. It marked the highest level hit for the company since 2020. Barrick Gold sent $500 million on share buybacks last year and $700 million in dividends.

"Gold is becoming more important as a safe haven in a geopolitically uncertain world," Barrick Gold CEO Mark Bristow told analysts on an earnings call last week. "Needless to say, it's an exciting time to be a gold and copper miner with more upside in the commodity price, in my opinion, anyway."

Some traders, however, think a short-term pause in gold prices is nearing, given its rapid ascent in value.

"There are signs of short-term exhaustion," New York Stock Exchange strategist Michael Reinking said in a note.


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