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Inflation likely to ease to 18.8% in September report as Naira strengthens — FXTM analyst - THE NATION
Lukman Otunuga, a Senior Research Analyst at FXTM Academy, has projected a decline in Nigeria’s inflation rate, predicting that the September 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report — set for release on October 15 — will show inflation easing to 18.8 percent year-on-year from 20.1 percent in August.
Describing October 15 as “the biggest macro event for Nigeria,” Otunuga attributed the expected decline to a combination of softer food prices and a strengthening naira, both of which may have helped to tame price pressures.
Speaking in an interview, he noted that continued signs of cooling inflation could open the door for the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to consider further interest rate cuts in November to boost economic growth.
Beyond Nigeria, Otunuga highlighted a turbulent global financial landscape marked by geopolitical tensions and volatile market reactions. He said a 200-word post by former U.S. President Donald Trump on Truth Social wiped nearly $2 trillion off U.S. markets last Friday after Trump threatened to impose a 100 percent tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1.
“The S&P 500 suffered its worst session since April, tumbling 2.7 percent, while Bitcoin collapsed and safe-haven gold surged amid the chaos,” he explained.
Otunuga added that weekend reports of the Trump administration’s openness to dialogue with China slightly eased concerns, though uncertainty remains high amid an ongoing U.S. government shutdown that began on October 1.
He also noted that U.S. banks are expected to post strong Q3 earnings, supported by a rebound in investment banking and renewed mergers and acquisitions, buoyed by easing regulations and prospects of lower interest rates.
On the commodities front, Otunuga revealed that gold touched a new all-time high above $4,070 on Monday amid U.S.-China trade tensions. “The precious metal has now posted eight straight weeks of gains and is up nearly 55 percent year-to-date,” he said, predicting that the rally could extend to $4,100 if support holds at $4,050.
