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Nigeria’s ambition to ramp up crude oil production to 2 million barrels per day (bpd) remains out of reach, as output averaged 1.55 million bpd in the first quarter of 2026, highlighting persistent structural challenges in the country’s oil sector.

Latest data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) showed that Nigeria’s crude output stood at 1.63 million bpd in January, 1.48 million bpd in February and 1.55 million bpd in March. This development is still significantly below government targets and installed capacity.

It is worthy of note the Commission combines crude oil, blended and unblended condensate production in its daily average liquid output. “The average crude oil production represents 92 percent of OPEC quota (1.5 million bpd),” NUPRC stated.

The performance highlighted a widening gap between policy ambitions and operational realities, despite renewed efforts by the government and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited to boost production.

Nigeria has consistently set aggressive output targets, including plans to reach 2 million bpd in the near term and as much as 3 million bpd by 2030.

Both the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited leadership and the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources have publicly tied this target to budgetary projections and long-term output goals.

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“I want to say that our budget for 2026 is targeted at 2.80mbpd and the budget begins from 1.84mbpd while our targeted projection is 2.06mbpd,” said Akponime Omojevwhe, Head Field Operations, Eastern Corridor, Project Monitoring Office (P.M.O NNPCL).

“So we want to say that even as we draw closer to next year 2026, as we have come together to ensure that the projection is going up, we want to crave your indulgence, please don’t relent”.

However, current production levels suggest that achieving even the 2 million bpd benchmark will require substantial improvements in infrastructure, security, and investment inflows.

While output has shown some recovery compared to previous lows, it remains volatile. In recent months, production has fluctuated between 1.4 million and 1.7 million bpd, reflecting ongoing disruptions across upstream operations.

Oil theft, underinvestment weigh on output

Industry analysts attribute the shortfall largely to crude oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and years of underinvestment in upstream assets.

These challenges have constrained production from key onshore and shallow water fields, many of which have suffered operational shutdowns or reduced capacity utilisation.

The divestment of international oil companies from onshore assets has also created transitional gaps, with indigenous firms still ramping up technical and financial capacity to fully optimise production.

New crude grades offer limited relief

Efforts to boost output through the introduction of new crude streams are beginning to yield modest gains. The recent launch and export of new grades such as Cawthorne is expected to support incremental production increases.

However, analysts cautioned that such measures alone are insufficient to bridge the significant gap between current output and national targets.

Despite renewed optimism and incremental improvements, Nigeria’s oil production trajectory suggests that the 2 million bpd target will remain elusive in the near term.

Experts said achieving this milestone will depend on sustained security improvements, accelerated investment in upstream projects, and stronger regulatory stability.