Market News

Nigeria’s foreign trade has grown strongly under President Bola Tinubu, with exports rising, total trade expanding and trade surpluses recorded every quarter since mid 2023.

New data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that by the third quarter of 2025, Nigeria’s total trade reached N38.93 trillion, while the trade surplus widened to N6.69 trillion, one of the strongest positions in recent years.

Many economists link this performance to the impact of naira volatility on imports. Historically, when the naira is devalued or weakens, imports tend to fall almost immediately, although export responses depend on policy and other economic factors. In the short term, currency movements have a strong effect on Nigeria’s import levels.

A review of the figures shows a sharp rise in trade since the start of the Tinubu administration. In Q2 2023, total trade stood at N12.74 trillion, with exports of N6.44 trillion and imports of N6.30 trillion. This left a small surplus of N0.13 trillion.

By Q3 2023, exports rose to N10.35 trillion while imports stood at N9.04 trillion, pushing the surplus to N1.32 trillion. Trade growth became even stronger in 2024. In Q1 2024, exports surged to N19.18 trillion, imports rose to N14.75 trillion, and the surplus expanded sharply to N4.43 trillion.

In Q2 2024, exports increased further to N17.71 trillion while imports dipped slightly to N13.96 trillion, producing a surplus of N3.75 trillion. By Q3 2024, exports climbed to N20.54 trillion, imports were N15.28 trillion, and the surplus reached N5.23 trillion, the highest that year.

The momentum continued into 2025. In Q1 2025, exports expanded to N20.60 trillion, imports were N15.43 trillion and the surplus stood at N5.17 trillion. In Q2 2025, exports jumped to N22.75 trillion against imports of N15.29 trillion, pushing the surplus to a record N7.46 trillion.

By Q3 2025, exports edged up to N22.81 trillion while imports rose to N16.12 trillion. Total trade climbed to N38.93 trillion, with a strong surplus of N6.69 trillion.

Analysts say the weaker naira has likely boosted non oil exports and reduced imports, at least in the short term. Oil exporters also benefit when currency depreciation coincides with higher global oil prices.

Commenting on the figures, Director General of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, said the steady trade surpluses reflect policy changes and broader economic adjustments, not just a deep shift in export structure.

“The data show a strong rise in trade values, largely driven by exchange rate liberalisation and higher oil export earnings in the near term,” Yusuf said.

He added that while the surplus is good news, much of the export growth still remains oil based, and Nigeria is heavily dependent on imports. Rising imports in 2024 and 2025 also point to improving domestic demand.

“The key challenge is turning these big trade numbers into real economic gains by diversifying exports, strengthening manufacturing, improving logistics and reducing import dependence,” Yusuf said.

Overall, analysts describe the data as encouraging but mixed. Nigeria is earning more from trade and maintaining surpluses, but sustaining these gains will require deeper reforms as the Tinubu administration moves into the second half of its term.