Market News

By Oluwakemi Abimbola

Since October 2023, only 36 per cent of targeted households have benefited from the conditional cash transfer programme launched by the Federal Government to cushion economic hardship for vulnerable Nigerians.

According to the latest mid-year report published by PwC, most of the beneficiaries have received the cash transfer once since 2023.

The programme was relaunched in 2023, following the removal of the petrol subsidy and the unification of the foreign exchange market by the President Bola Tinubu administration. The scheme is aimed at directly supporting those within the lowest poverty bracket.

PwC’s report indicated that “Official figures showed that while 5.6 million households benefited from at least one transfer, just 2.4 million received a second and fewer than 1.3 million progressed to a third payment after biometric verification, raising questions about the pace and reach of the initiative.”

It added that in April, the government began a National Identity Number enrolment campaign to improve transparency in the Social Register, requiring at least one adult in each eligible household to be verified with a NIN or BVN before receiving cash transfer support.

The professional services firm holds that the NIN registration, especially in rural areas of the country, may improve the ability of the government to provide support to the most vulnerable households nationwide.

In May, the FG said that a total of 2.3 million households had been confirmed and cleared for payment under the renewed CCT scheme.

The World Bank had approved an $800m loan for the initiative, out of which $530m had been disbursed as of April 30, 2025.

In its Nigeria Development Update report titled ‘Building Momentum for Inclusive Growth’, the World Bank also noted that “Only 5.6 million households, around 37 per cent, have received at least one tranche of direct transfers,” and called for an expansion of the programme, which it said, “remains dependent on biometrically verifying at least one adult member of the household with a foundational digital identity. Also, efforts to urgently provide support to the poorest and most economically at-risk households should be redoubled and expanded.”

Meanwhile, PwC said that geopolitical tensions had a muted impact on oil prices in H1 2025, as prices did not rise despite heightened geopolitical risks. The world had recorded U.S.–China tensions, the Middle East conflict, and cyber threats in the first half of the year.

“Oil prices fell from $79.21 per barrel to $71.21 per barrel between January and June 2025. The decline was driven by the increase in output of nearly one million barrels per day in April and June by OPEC+, which reinforced downward pressure amid uncertain demand. Sustained escalation in geopolitical tensions, particularly the Israel-Middle East conflict, may still have an adverse impact on oil prices in the medium term.

“Such an outcome may prove favourable to Nigeria, given its reliance on crude oil exports (the benchmark oil price for 2025 was set at US$75 per barrel) as a major source of foreign exchange revenue.”

In terms of outlook, PwC projected that Nigeria’s GDP will expand “modestly by 3.4 per cent in 2025, supported by higher crude oil production and stronger performance in the finance and insurance, construction, ICT and real estate sectors.”

Headline Inflation is projected to moderate to 21.46 per cent in 2025 on the back of a hawkish monetary policy environment and stability in the foreign exchange market.

However, it estimates that with the deceleration recently recorded in inflation, the Central Bank of Nigeria may begin to consider a gradual easing of its monetary policy stance in H2’2025.