Market News

By : Kingsley Jeremiah, Isaac Chibuife

Billionaire investor and industrialist, Femi Otedola, has expressed optimism that the Naira could appreciate to N1,000 per dollar or below before the end of 2026, attributing the potential gains to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery reaching full production capacity.

Meanwhile, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) recorded total revenue of N60.5 trillion in 2025 but retained just about N5.76 trillion as profit after tax, a development which shows the impact of operating costs, statutory deductions and fiscal obligations on the state oil company.

Otedola,in a statement on his X handle yesterday, described the refinery’s achievement as a watershed moment for Nigeria’s foreign exchange management and economic stability.

He congratulated the President of Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, on what he termed atransformational development for Nigeria and Africa.

The business magnate noted that the refinery’s capacity to produce up to 75 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) daily represents a fundamental shift in Nigeria’s petroleum supply chain, ending decades of dependence on imported refined products.

“With domestic refining now firmly underway after decades of reliance on imports, pressure on the foreign exchange market should ease significantly,” Otedola stated, adding that the development should provide substantial relief to the country’s forex reserves. “I am optimistic that the Naira will strengthen meaningfully, and trading below N1,000/$1 before year-end is increasingly within reach.”

Beyond the present production milestone, Otedola disclosed that Dangote initiated a $12 billion expansion programme designed to boost the refinery’s capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day. The expansion project will also incorporate the production of 2.4 million tonnes of polypropylene and 400,000 metric tonnes of Linear Alkyl Benzene, a critical raw material in detergent manufacturing.

A MONTHLY Report Summary of NNPCL for December 2025 showed that crude oil and condensate production averaged 1.54 million barrels per day (mbpd) in December, while the 2025 peak production reached 1.77 mbpd earlier in the year.

According to the report, NNPCL, in 2025 witnessed roughly 9.4 per cent net margin as the figures indicate that more than 90 per cent of the company’s gross earnings were absorbed by expenses, taxes and other outflows.

A breakdown of monthly revenue shows that the year opened at N3.82 trillion in January before rising sharply to N6.62 trillion in February, the highest monthly performance. Revenue remained slightly high in March (N5.48 trillion), April (N5.89 trillion) and May (N6.01 trillion).

While the incumbent Group Chief Executive Officer, Bayo Ojulari, took over in April, receipts softened in June to N5.11 trillion and declined further in July (N4.41 trillion), August (N4.66 trillion) and September (N4.27 trillion), marking a third-quarter slowdown. A modest rebound was recorded in October at N5.08 trillion before easing again in November (N4.36 trillion) and closing the year at N4.82 trillion in December.

In terms of profit after tax, the company recorded a loss of N161 billion in January and a marginal N7 billion loss in March under Mele Kyari despite strong revenue inflows. However, February delivered a substantial N987 billion profit, followed by N748 billion in April and a peak of N1.05 trillion in May. June also remained strong at N904 billion. In the second half, profits narrowed considerably to N180 billion in July, N539 billion in August, N216 billion in September, N447 billion in October, N502 billion in November and N351 billion in December.