Market News

The UK economy is anticipated to have bounced back to growth in June following two successive months of contraction, as worries mount over the economic impact of President Donald Trump's tariffs.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict the Office for National Statistics (ONS) will report UK expansion of 0.2 per cent for June when data emerges on Thursday, as reported by City AM.

The ONS will simultaneously deliver an assessment for second-quarter growth, with analysts suggesting expansion will reach merely 0.1 per cent for the April to June period.

The ONS reported the UK economy shrank by 0.3 per cent in April and 0.1 per cent in May as enterprises were caught off guard by the abrupt onset of a global trade conflict.

British goods exports to the US plummeted by £2bn in April, marking the steepest monthly drop on record.

Tensions have subsequently eased after major economies extended concessions to President Trump, with trade agreements reducing the effective tariff rate to approximately 14 per cent, according to the Bank of England.

Economists at Threadneedle Street also noted the effective US tariff rate on the UK fell from 11 per cent in May to roughly 8 per cent.

Barclays economist Jack Meaning observed that an expansion surge in the year's opening quarter, reflected by GDP rising 0.7 per cent, was predominantly fuelled by "temporary factors" including purchasers seeking to acquire goods before tariffs and taxes struck the UK economy. The UK economy's challenges emerged as firms grappled with the impact of additional levies on exports and reduced appetite for goods in the US.

UK economy teeters ahead of Budget

The forthcoming months may witness additional difficulties for the UK economy as business leaders across the nation anticipate potential tax increases, HSBC analysts suggest.

"Consumers, while pessimistic about the economic outlook, are relatively more certain of their own personal financial situations going forward," said Emma Wilks, economist at HSBC.

"A clear risk lies in the upcoming Autumn Budget, not only in terms of possible policies announced, but also the uncertainty in the lead-up to it."

In a separate release on Tuesday morning, the ONS is widely anticipated to reveal a gentler drop in employment figures than witnessed in recent months whilst wage growth is expected to decline to 4.7 per cent.

The official statistics body reported last month that the number of employees on the payroll fell by 41,000 in June, though this figure could be revised downwards.

Analysis by the Recruitment and Employment Confederation revealed further reductions in payroll spending at UK firms, with job openings declining at an accelerated rate and reduced salary rises being presented to new recruits.