Market News

by  Chloe Cresswell

(Bloomberg) -- Bitcoin’s rebound this week from the depths of despair below $60,000 has reignited a familiar Wall Street ritual: trying to call the bottom.

Analysts point to a growing list of signals that have accompanied past market lows. At the same time, some argue the coin’s washout coincided with a broader shift in speculative appetite, as artificial-intelligence stocks and SpaceX’s closely watched public debut became competing destinations for risk capital.

The theory is difficult to prove, and the market remains far from an all-clear. Spot Bitcoin ETFs are still suffering heavy outflows, institutional demand remains weak and some analysts warn the token could yet experience another leg lower.

Yet the search for signs of stabilization has intensified after Bitcoin’s plunge to $59,100 last week. Historically, the token – now trading at $63,000 — has often begun carving out bottoms when pessimism is widespread, flows are deteriorating and investors struggle to identify a catalyst for recovery.

For Geoffrey Kendrick, global head of digital-assets research at Standard Chartered, that process may already be underway.

“I think we have now seen the low in crypto-asset prices for the cycle,” Kendrick wrote in a note to clients.

He cited two potential catalysts. The first is easing geopolitical tensions that could reduce pressure on oil prices and Treasury yields. The second is the possibility that the SpaceX IPO marks the end of a recent wave of ETF selling. Kendrick said some Bitcoin ETF holders may have sold positions to free up cash for the offering, helping fuel one of the sharpest stretches of outflows since the funds launched.

Other analysts see evidence of a bottom forming in the market’s internals. Bitcoin’s drop left it trading just 9% above its realized price, or the average level at which coins last moved on-chain. According to CryptoQuant, the metric has historically approached realized price near major bear-market lows.

Vetle Lunde at K33 Research points to another measure. More than half of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is now held below its purchase price, a condition that has emerged near previous market bottoms as the pool of investors still sitting on profits — and therefore under pressure to sell — dwindles. Even so, Lunde cautioned that Bitcoin could still suffer a “final leg lower” before establishing a durable recovery.