Market News

David Pan

(Bloomberg) — Options traders are increasing bets that Bitcoin (BTC-USD) will reach a record high of $80,000 by the end of November no matter who wins the US presidential election.

The largest cryptocurrency came close to $70,000 at the start of the week before dropping back. The token, which has jumped about 60% this year, changed hands at $67,100 as of 6:03 a.m. in London on Wednesday.

The put-to-call ratio is trending lower toward the end of the year, with more traders buying call options than puts, according to data compiled by the largest crypto options exchange Deribit.

“We see traders buy calls near 68k and puts near 66k, in other words, many continuously position and reposition for a breakout for either end,” said Yev Feldman, co-founder at SwapGlobal, which provides derivatives such as swaps and options, to the US digital-asset investors. “There is limited reason to collapse downwards after the election, so up makes more sense.”

The open interest, which is the total amount of outstanding contracts, for the call contracts expiring on Nov. 29 is concentrated around $80,000 with the second most popular strike price at $70,000. The open interest for the calls expiring on Dec. 27 is clustered around $100,000 and $80,000, while the most popular strike price of the calls expiring on Nov. 8 is at $75,000, the data shows.

Higher Premiums

Call options are also commanding relatively higher premiums compared to their put counterparts based on the skew term structure, which indicates the pricing dynamics between calls and puts. At a higher level, options traders have driven call premiums across nearly all tenors beyond one-day expiration contracts, Jake Ostrovskis, an over-the-counter trader at Wintermute, wrote in a Monday note.

“This indicates that investors are leveraging the options market more as a tool for capturing potential upside rather than as a hedge against downside risks,” Lawant said. “For non-Bitcoin crypto assets, I see opinions more divided. The market shows less consensus on how these alternative cryptocurrencies might perform under different electoral scenarios.”

Unlike other major events such as the launch of Bitcoin ETFs and the halving, volatility before and after the election is muted, though it may change as the date nears, Lawant said.