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(Bloomberg) -- The next four weeks will determine whether Europe’s economy is facing a fresh crisis or simply a speed bump in its recovery.

That’s how long Donald Trump says his strikes on Iran — which have already killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, triggered a wave of counter attacks across the Middle East and sent energy costs surging — will last.

A lengthier campaign risks sabotaging the euro zone’s fledgling revival while reawakening inflationary forces that the European Central Bank has fought hard to contain. A reliance on oil and gas from the region makes the bloc the “most exposed major economy” to Iran spillovers, ING’s Carsten Brzeski reckons.

“If the conflict is short-lived and energy prices rise only briefly, the damage will be contained,” Bloomberg Economics’s Antonio Barroso and Simona Delle Chiaie said. “A prolonged war, however, that keeps oil and gas prices elevated could force governments to spend more to shield voters from rising costs — and put incumbent leaders under pressure.”

Things had been looking up for Europe this year, with higher government spending in Germany and beyond set to underpin further modest economic expansion and inflation broadly in line with the ECB’s 2% goal.

But the Iran escalation follows renewed confusion over US tariffs after the Supreme Court struck down Trump’s initial levies.

There’s little panic just yet that the euro zone is being thrown off course. Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg, says he’ll continue to base his outlook on Brent prices averaging $65-$70 a barrel, even after they broke through $80 on Monday in what he described as probably a “near-term spike.”

“I’d expect Trump to go to great lengths to prevent a lasting surge in energy prices that could hurt him at home,” Schmieding said. “US voters already blamed him for high consumer prices before the strikes against Iran.”

Iran, too, has strong incentives to avoid excessive tensions in the Strait of Hormuz — the conduit for about a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil and gas.

“China – which, along with Russia, is the only major power supporting Iran – depends heavily on that sea route for its oil imports and will put pressure on Tehran not to jeopardize it,” UniCredit economist Edoardo Campanella said.