Market News

Nigeria’s gross external reserves rose by US$295m month-on-month to US$55.2bn at end October 2026, according to data published by the CBN. The increase brings the year-to-date accumulation to US$9.7bn and leaves the reserve stock at its highest level in 18 years. On a gross basis, the reserves provide about 15.8 months of merchandise import cover and 10.5 months of total import cover, including services. Over the same month, the naira depreciated by 1.2% to N1,346.0/USD at the NFEM window. Egypt’s net international reserves rose by US$152m to a record US$57.5bn, while South Africa’s international liquidity declined by US$709m to US$71.5bn. Nigeria’s year-to-date gain of US$9.7bn compares with US$6.1bn for Egypt and US$0.4bn for South Africa. Elevated crude oil prices and improving production are expected to support further reserve accumulation through year-end. 

Nigeria’s gross external reserves increased by US$295m month-on-month (MoM) to US$55.2bn as at end October 2026, according to the latest data published by the CBN, extending the steady trend of accumulation observed throughout the year. The latest increase brings the cumulative reserve accretion since the start of the year to US$9.7bn, underscoring the significant improvement in Nigeria’s external position. The reserve build-up continues to be supported by elevated crude oil prices, improving oil production, resilient remittance inflows and sustained access to external financing. Despite the relatively modest increase recorded in October, the reserve stock remains at its highest level in 18 years and continues to provide significant buffers against external shocks.

• On a gross basis, the external reserves provide around 15.8 months of merchandise import cover and 10.5 months of total import cover (including services).
• Despite the increase in reserves, the naira depreciated by 1.2% MoM to N1,346.0/USD at the NFEM window, reflecting stronger seasonal FX demand and FPI-related outflows.
• The relative resilience of the reserve position suggests that underlying FX inflows remain sufficiently robust to accommodate elevated market demand without materially weakening external buffers.
• Turning to other markets, Egypt’s net international reserves increased by US$152m MoM to a new record high of US$57.5bn, supported by continued capital inflows and remittance receipts.
• In contrast, South Africa’s international liquidity position declined by US$709m MoM to US$71.5bn, extending the moderation recorded in recent months and reducing its year-to-date increase to just US$405m.
• Among the three markets, Nigeria has recorded the strongest pace of reserve accumulation this year (US$9.7bn), outpacing the corresponding increases of US$6.1bn and US$0.4bn recorded by Egypt and South Africa, respectively.
• Looking ahead, elevated crude oil prices and improving production levels should remain supportive of reserve accumulation, although seasonal FX demand could continue to exert some pressure on the naira in the near term.
• As such, the gross external reserves is expected to remain on an upward trajectory through year-end, providing continued support for FX market stability and strengthening Nigeria’s capacity to absorb external shocks.