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Peso Slide to 60 Is Possible, Philippine Central Banker Says - BLOOMBERG
(Bloomberg) -- Philippine central bank Governor Eli Remolona isn’t ruling out the possibility of the peso hitting a fresh record low of 60 to a dollar, though monetary authorities will ensure that a fall to such a level won’t be abrupt.
“It could,” Remolona said late Wednesday when asked about the prospects of the local currency hitting 60 per dollar. “But we want it to be orderly and not sudden. We don’t want a one-sided market.”
The exchange rate hitting a round number has a “psychological effect” and could spur a continuous move, Remolona said in an interview following an event in Manila. That also suggests the movement isn’t justified by fundamentals, he added.
The peso dropped this month as Donald Trump’s election victory sent the dollar higher, with investors worrying over potential tariffs and the impact on trade. The peso’s decline has been capped at the record-low 59 per dollar, a level that has acted as a key threshold in the past two years, as traders assess Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’s tolerance for a weak currency.
“The central bank does not want expectations of peso weakness to be self-fulfilling at these key levels, and especially during periods of low FX liquidity,” said Michael Wan, a currency strategist at MUFG Bank in Singapore. “But I don’t ultimately think any specific levels are sacrosanct by any means, including the 60 level.”
Remolona said he’s comfortable with the peso’s current level, adding the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas has intervened in the foreign-exchange market in “small amounts” recently. The peso gained 0.1% to 58.64 on Thursday.
Remolona on Wednesday said the currency’s day-to-day movement “doesn’t figure into monetary policy.” The exchange rate could be considered if the swings are significant and happening over a few months, he said.
The BSP governor had said that policymakers will consider both a rate cut and a pause during their next meeting, with the central bank seeing 100 basis points in cumulative cuts next year.
Philippine monetary authorities are set to hold their next rate-setting meeting on Dec. 19. They reduced the benchmark interest rate last month by 25 basis points for the second time this year to 6%.
--With assistance from Ditas Lopez.
(Updates with analyst comment, and chart)