Market News

By Baris Balci

(Bloomberg) -- Turkish consumer prices rose more than expected last month, suggesting the central bank will start cutting interest rates at a slower pace than anticipated.

Annual inflation slowed to 47.1% in November from 48.6% the previous month, Turkstat said Tuesday. That was higher than the median estimate of 46.6% in a Bloomberg survey of analysts.

The monetary policy committee, led by central bank Governor Fatih Karahan, signaled last month that slowing inflation may soon justify a rate cut. While the November headline inflation reading surprised to the upside, the main driver was food prices, which are less responsive to monetary policy. Core inflation trends showed a further slowdown, potentially helping the case for a measured rate cut. 

“The slide in headline price gains for November disappointed and flags a smaller-than-expected downshift in the underlying trend of inflation,” said Bloomberg Economics Economist Selva Bahar Baziki. “We expect policymakers to interpret that movement as still supporting a December kick off to a long-drawn easing cycle, but by a smaller step than previously expected.”

Lower Turkish borrowing costs will provide a much-needed boost to the Middle East’s largest non-oil economy, after it entered a technical recession in the third-quarter of this year because of the central bank’s policy stance. Turkey’s next rate decision is scheduled for Dec. 26.

Turkey’s benchmark Borsa Istanbul 100 Index reversed its losses to gain as much as 2.1% after the data. The exchange’s gauge of banking stocks climbed 3.5% by 1:40 p.m. in Istanbul.

Monthly prices — a key indicator for the central bank — rose 2.24%, compared with 2.88% in October, Turkstat said. The median estimate for that measure was 1.92%. Core inflation, which strips out volatile items including food and energy, rose 47.1% year-on-year, less than 47.8% October.

A wild card for the monetary authority is food inflation. Food and non-alcoholic beverages prices — the biggest contributor to monthly inflation — increased 48.6% from a year earlier and 5.1% from the previous month.

Services prices rose 1.61% in November, slightly less than the previous month. Monthly rent prices, one of the stickiest items in services inflation, rose 4.18% in November, compared with 5.5% in October.

“Both core and service inflations continue to fall and we still expect a measured cut in the policy rate in December,” said Tufan Comert, global markets strategy director at BBVA in London.

Seasonally adjusted price-growth data, which is also closely watched by policymakers, will be released on Wednesday.

--With assistance from Tugce Ozsoy and Onur Ant.