Market News
U.S. Economic Growth Was Slower Than Initially Thought At The End Of 2025 - FORBES
Key Facts
Friday’s revision contrasts with GDP growing an estimated 4.4% in the third quarter.
The change reflects downward revisions to exports, consumer spending, government spending, and investment, the report says.
Imports decreased less than previously estimated.
Final sales to private purchasers (both consumer and investments) increased 1.9%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous estimate.
Real GDP for all of 2025 grew 2.1%, slightly lower than prior estimates.
The advance estimate of 1.4% was released in February, with President Trump pointing to the government shutdown enacted by Democrats in October as the culprit.
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Tangent
In February, the U.S. economy lost 92,000 nonfarm payroll jobs, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%. The dip marked the third time in five months that the economy lost jobs. Average hourly earnings increased 0.4% for the month and 3.8% from a year ago.
Big Number
$31.4 trillion. That was the United States’ gross domestic product in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to the report. The Bureau of Economic Analysis estimates that the government shutdown subtracted about 1 percentage point from potential growth.
Fascinating Fact
Personal savings as a percent of disposable income fell to 4.0% in Q4, down from 5.6% in 2023, indicating strain on consumers.
Key Background
The downwards revision comes as markets reel from continuing military operations in Iran that have resulted in a series of counterstrikes on U.S. allies across the Middle East, with the price of oil hitting $100 per barrel several times since the conflict began late last month, further straining consumers at the gas pump and even affecting airfares. Billionaire John Catsimatidis (net worth $4.8 billion), who owns 400 gas stations under brands including Kwik Fill and Country Fair, advised consumers to “suffer for one month” last week, predicting that prices will fall as quickly as they rose and that the conflict will be over soon.
