Volatility Rises in Japan Markets With Ishiba Set to Depart - BLOOMBERG
SEPTEMBER
07,
2025
BY Hidenori Yamanaka, Aya Wagatsuma and Ruth Carson
(Bloomberg) -- Japanese markets face the prospect of more instability as investors prepare for the departure of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and the guessing game of who comes next.
The yen slid as much as 0.7% to 148.42 against the dollar as currency markets reopened at 4 a.m. Tokyo time Monday, after being among the weakest of its Group of 10 peers last week.
Long-maturity Japanese sovereign bonds stand out as being particularly vulnerable to selling when that market gets underway later in the morning, given heightened concerns over government spending. Stocks are exposed to cross currents that make choppy moves likely.
Although expectations for Ishiba’s eventual departure have been present following his ruling party’s poor election showing in July, traders are still trying to determine how much fiscal stimulus may come with potential successors, and to what degree any change could slow the next interest rate hike from the Bank of Japan.
“While it remains unclear who will become the next prime minister, it’s difficult to envision anyone with a fiscal discipline stance better than or even equivalent to his,” said Katsutoshi Inadome, senior strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management in Tokyo. “The weak performance of ultra-long-term bonds, driven by fiscal concerns, is likely to persist or even intensify.”
Any further spike in JGB yields would be of concern to global markets, which have been on guard for more spillover from Japan into debt trading in Europe and the US. Long-end yields have been rising on renewed fiscal concerns across major economies.
The yen, which ended last week around 147.43 to the dollar, is likely to slide toward the 149.10/20 level, said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG in Sydney.
Nick Twidale of ATFX Global Markets sees a chance that a BOJ rate hike comes off the table this year because of the political backdrop. The yen will be “whippy and horrible to trade,” said Twidale. “Rates traders will also be facing heightened risk.”
Swaps markets suggest almost no prospect of a move by the BOJ at its next policy meeting later this month. They don’t price in a full rate hike until next April, and show a chance of just under 50% for an increase by the December meeting of this year.
Unions are urging the Government not to water down its flagship Bill on workers’ rights following ministerial changes in recent days, saying people expected Labour to deliver on the promises it made during the general election.
The Employment Rights Bill, which is in its final parliamentary stages, was championed by former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner and former employment rights minister Justin Madders.
Both have left the posts they were in as the legislation was taken through the Commons, which has raised concerns among some union leaders.
Paul Nowak, general secretary of the TUC, said on Sunday he had seen no evidence that the Bill was going to be watered down.
Ahead of the opening day of the TUC Congress in Brighton, he said: “The Government must, and should, deliver on the promises it gave to the British people last July.
“The Bill will level the playing field – extending the standards already set by the best employers, working with unions, to millions more.
“It will stop good businesses being undercut by the cowboys and it will help build a modern economy that raises pay, boosts productivity and improves well-being.
“Tory and Lib Dem peers are desperately trying to water this Bill down.
“We’ve got the shameful sight of hereditary peers blocking carers and cleaners from getting fair treatment at work. This isn’t the 1800s. It’s 2025.
“My message to these blockers is simple: get out of the way. You’re lucky enough not to face financial disaster if you take a day off sick.
“You’re lucky enough not to have to face abusive customers.
“You’re lucky enough not to worry about paying the bills if your boss cuts your shift with no notice.
“Millions of workers aren’t that lucky and working people have waited long enough for change.
“The Employment Rights Bill is a vital first step in tipping the balance back toward workers.
“So today, my message to all parliamentarians is simple: do the right thing. Listen to the public, stand with working people, deliver the Bill in full.”
The TUC published new analysis which showed that four million people are in insecure work in the UK, such as those on zero-hours contracts, agency, casual and seasonal workers and the low-paid self-employed who miss out on key rights and protections.
The TUC said insecure work “exploded” under the Conservative government, increasing by 800,000 from 2011 to 2024.
Asked about the Bill on Sky News, Defence Secretary John Healey said: “I’m really confident that we’ll deliver what we promised in the manifesto, the biggest upgrade of workers’ rights for a generation.
Reform to meet with Andrew Bailey after attack on Bank policy
Eir Nolsoe
Sun 7 September 2025 at 2:22 pm BST 3 min readRichard Tice, Reform UK’s deputy leader, is ‘looking forward’ to meeting the Governor later this month - Stefan Rousseau/PA
Reform UK’s deputy leader said he would meet Andrew Bailey, who has called the party’s proposal to save taxpayer money by stopping the Bank paying interest on commercial banks’ deposits “illusory”.
Mr Tice told The Telegraph: “We’ve got a meeting later this month, and we’re looking forward to it.”
Reform has claimed it could save the taxpayer £35bn a year if Threadneedle Street stopped paying interest to commercial lenders.
The reserves were created as part of the Bank’s £895bn quantitative easing programme, which was used to boost the economy during the financial crisis and Covid.
Mr Bailey has said the proposal would fail to generate such sums or deliver any taxpayer savings.
Mr Tice told the audience: “On the issue that the Bank of England is voluntarily paying interest unnecessarily to the rich City banks, I raised it, they scratched their head, what the hell Tice is talking about. Then they looked into it and said, good lord, he’s right.”
He added: “They are taking us very, very seriously on that issue.”
Mr Tice would not comment on where or when the meeting would take place, saying such details were confidential.
It comes after Mr Bailey sent the Reform deputy leader a five-page letter in June, defending its asset purchase programme and rebuffing Mr Tice’s claims.
In the letter, the Governor said that the interest Threadneedle Street pays on banks’ deposits are mostly passed on to savers. They would therefore bear the brunt of it if this changed.
Mr Bailey said at the time: “Any reduction in income received on banks’ reserve assets would therefore likely be reflected in either the interest received by depositors on their deposits with banks or in increased interest charged on other bank assets.
“In this sense, although constructed as a tax on banks, one might consider it a tax on banking services.”
Andrew Bailey defended the Bank’s asset purchase programme in a five-page letter to Richard Tice - Alastair Grant/Reuters
Mr Bailey also said paying interest on the reserves was important for preventing another financial crisis and ensuring that the Bank’s interest rate cuts or increases can influence inflation.
He added that he would “be happy to meet if that would be useful”.
Mr Tice also used his closing speech to call for greater scrutiny of the Bank of England, echoing Donald Trump’s attacks on the Federal Reserve in the US.
'Build, baby, build': Canada PM's plan to counter Trump
Geneviève NORMAND
Sun 7 September 2025 at 3:13 am BST 3 min readCette image du 5 août 2020, gracieuseté de Trans Mountain Corporation, montre les travaux de construction de l'agrandissement du pipeline Trans Mountain, le premier depuis des décennies à être construit au Canada (Handout)
On the night he won Canada's election, Prime Minister Mark Carney summarized his plan to jumpstart the country's economy in response to President Donald Trump's threats.
"Build, baby, build!" Carney told a jubilant crowd of Liberal party supporters in April.
In the early weeks of his first term, Carney's plans to build have taken shape, headlined by the new "Major Projects Office", launched last month to spearhead the construction of ports, highways, mines and perhaps a new oil pipeline -- a contentious subject for groups concerned about the environment.
The office, which is expected to announce its priorities in the coming days, was formed after Carney's Liberals secured cross-party support to pass legislation empowering his government to fast-track "nation-building projects."
"We are moving at a speed not seen in generations," Carney said, a level of urgency he argues is required as Trump reshapes the global economy.
Trump's threats to annex Canada have eased, but his trade war is hurting the Canadian economy.
US tariffs on autos, steel and aluminum have squeezed the three crucial sectors and led to job losses.
The unemployment rate hit 7.1 percent in August, the highest level since 2016 outside of the pandemic.
That "adds to evidence that the trade war is taking its toll on Canadian labor markets," RBC senior economist Claire Fan said this week.
- 'Economy in peril' -
Since entering politics earlier this year, Carney has insisted Canada needs to break its decades-long reliance on US trade by revitalizing internal commerce while pursuing new markets in Europe and Asia.
During a visit to Germany last month, Carney said his government was "unleashing half a trillion dollars of investment" in infrastructure for energy, ports and other sectors.
Jay Khosla, an energy expert at the Public Policy Forum, said the momentum to build would not have been possible without Trump.
"We know our economy is in peril," he said, noting Canada was effectively "captured economically," because of its closeness to the United States.
- 'Energy superpower'? -
Canada is the world's fourth largest oil exporter and its crude reserves are the world's third largest.
Most of its resources are in the western province of Alberta, which exports almost exclusively to the United States, as Canada lacks the infrastructure to efficiently get energy products to other foreign markets.
Former prime minister Justin Trudeau, Carney's predecessor, put climate change at the center of his political brand and faced criticism from some over his perceived lack of support for the energy sector.
In 2025, there continues to be plenty of UK stocks offering impressive dividend yields. And with some valuations taking a tumble, the passive income opportunities are starting to stretch into double-digit payout territory.
Perhaps a perfect example of this is RWS Holdings (RWS.L). The language and localisation enterprise has encountered a few bumps of late, slashing its market-cap in half over the last 12 months. But despite these challenges, management has continued to maintain dividends, offering an impressive 14.1% yield.
The question investors now have to ask is, can the business bounce back and continue generating long-term passive income?
What’s going on?
The trouble at RWS really kicked off in May when the company issued a concerning profit warning. Due to a variety of factors, including currency headwinds, technology investments, and unexpected non-cash charges, underlying earnings guidance was massively cut. And following the group’s interim results in June, management wasn’t kidding.
The group’s underlying pre-tax profits across the first half of 2025 collapsed by 61%, from £45.6m to £18m. And while performance is expected to improve in the second half, full-year guidance places earnings between £60m and £70m – a significant reduction compared to the £107m achieved in 2024.
Investor sentiment surrounding this business has slowly been souring for a while. Given the group specialises in translating corporate documents like patents and trademarks, there’s a valid concern of obsolescence now that artificial intelligence (AI) is taking off. And with investors already fretting over fears of disruption, this profit warning resulted in a massive 45% single-day crash earlier this year.
What now?
Since the sharp drop in share price a few months ago, RWS shares have rebounded slightly. And under the new leadership of an ex-Google executive, the company has unveiled a fresh strategy to get organic growth and margins back on track.
Rather than letting AI disrupt its business, RWS is attempting to embrace it. It’s putting its own AI translation tools at the heart of its operations via a simplified software-as-a-service subscription revenue model. In the words of management, the move is “about strategically repositioning RWS to stay relevant to clients’ future needs”.
It’s still early days, but modest organic growth has already started to materialise. And with existing AI tools already on offer, the company has a solid foundation to start migrating existing customers.
If this strategy is successful, then not only could the RWS share price rebound, but the subsequently predictable cash flows from subscriptions could further support shareholder payouts. In other words, today’s impressive dividend yield could be here to stay.
Admittedly, that’s a big ‘if’. Investors currently have RWS on a short leash, and further disruption or a lack of operational progress could mean the stock might have further to fall. Therefore, despite the tempting yield, it might be prudent to consider staying on the sidelines to see how the company handles its strategic transition, at least for now.
Zaven Boyrazian has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.
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