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Africa’s most populous nation emerges as one of the continent’s strongest reform stories

Nigeria has taken a decisive step back into the good graces of international investors.

On 9 October, Fitch Ratings revised the country’s outlook to positive and affirmed its “B” rating, signalling that an upgrade could follow. The decision is a strong endorsement of the economic strategy pursued by President Bola Tinubu since 2023. Fitch cites the reform of the country’s policy framework, the strengthening of its external buffers and its growing confidence that the reform course will continue beyond the 2027 elections. 

From Crisis To Resilience

The scale of the turnaround is remarkable. When President Tinubu took office, Nigeria was struggling with multiple exchange rates, a fuel subsidy draining public finances and a severe shortage of foreign currency. He chose to tackle them head-on.

Three years later, gross foreign reserves have reached $54.9 billion, up from $32 billion in April 2024. Net reserves, according to the Central Bank, have jumped from about $4 billion at the end of 2023 to $34.8 billion at the end of 2025. Fitch also stresses the improved quality of these reserves, which it says strengthens Nigeria’s resilience to external shocks. The current account surplus is expected to reach 6.4% of GDP this year.

On several key indicators, Nigeria now stands out among countries with the same rating. Its public debt should average around 32% of GDP over 2026-2028, against a median of 56% for its peers. Its reserve coverage, expected at 6.3 months of external payments at the end of 2026, should remain above peer levels through 2028. Inflation, meanwhile, is set to fall to an average of 15.4% this year, less than half its 2024 level, thanks to a stable naira and a disciplined monetary policy.

Fitch forecasts growth of 4.3% in 2026, rising from 4% in 2025, and above 4% in 2027 and 2028, increasingly powered by the non-oil economy. The energy sector is contributing too: oil output has met Nigeria’s OPEC target since May, while the giant Dangote refinery is reducing the country’s dependence on imported fuel. The banking sector has also been transformed: almost all Nigerian banks have raised fresh capital to meet new requirements, and many now hold capital ratios above 20%, giving them substantial room to fund business growth.

A Signal For The Continent

For investors comparing opportunities across Africa, Fitch’s decision sends a clear message: the continent’s most populous market is once again a credible destination. Nigeria’s experience also shows that bold reforms, implemented early and pursued consistently, can restore confidence in a matter of years.

The government now aims to consolidate these gains, notably through a tax reform expected to lift non-oil revenue to 7.5% of GDP. Fitch has made clear that sustained progress on inflation, reserves and revenue could lead to an upgrade.

For President Tinubu, the message from one of the world’s most closely watched rating agencies is unambiguous: the reforms are working.