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What to Expect After Gold’s Surge Above $4,400 - FX EMPIRE
Carolane De Palmas
Gold shattered records on December 22, 2025, breaking through $4,400 per ounce for the first time in history. This milestone caps an extraordinary year with prices surging 68%—the strongest annual performance since the late 1970s. But what’s driving this rally, and where is gold headed next?
hs holds a bullish outlook, forecasting gold will reach approximately $4,900 per ounce by December 2026—more than 10% above current levels. This prediction rests on two pillars:
Structurally high central bank demand: Institutions continue to accumulate gold for diversification
Federal Reserve rate cuts: Expected monetary easing provides cyclical tailwinds
Goldman also highlights upside risks if diversification demand broadens beyond institutions to include more private investors. The bank continues recommending long positions in gold, viewing it as one of the best-positioned commodities in an environment of easing monetary policy and persistent uncertainty.
JP Morgan: The Most Ambitious—$5,000 to $6,000
JP Morgan takes the most bullish stance. The bank attributes 2025’s powerful rally to trade tensions, strong ETF inflows, and sustained central bank buying—forces it expects to continue through 2026 and 2027:
Fourth quarter 2026: Gold reaches $5,000 per ounce
Longer term: Potential for $6,000 if macro and geopolitical conditions deteriorate further
Fourth quarter 2027: Average price of $5,400 per ounce
JP Morgan emphasizes gold’s unique dual role: functioning simultaneously as a hedge against currency debasement and as an alternative to U.S. Treasuries and money market instruments. Its low correlation with other assets makes it valuable insurance during market stress.
The bank expects continuous robust investor participation, projecting approximately 250 tonnes of ETF inflows in 2026 alongside bar and coin demand exceeding 1,200 tonnes annually. This indicates private investors will remain active alongside institutions and central banks.
The Bottom Line
Gold enters 2026 at elevated levels but with powerful structural support such as lower interest rates, a weaker dollar, geopolitical uncertainty, and sustained investor and central bank demand. While consolidation periods are likely after such a big rally, the balance of risks—according to major financial institutions—still tilts upward. Gold is no longer just reacting to short-term inflation fears; it has become a central asset for navigating a more fragmented and uncertain global economy.
Sources: Reuters, The Wall Street Journal, J.P. Morgan, Yahoo Finance, The World Gold Council
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
