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Oil Rises as Trump Departs China With Limited Progress on Hormuz - BLOOMBERG
BY Will Kubzansky, Alex Longley and Yongchang Chin
(Bloomberg) -- Oil climbed as US President Donald Trump left a meeting with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping without any meaningful progress on increasing energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, reigniting concerns that disruptions to global supplies will deepen.
West Texas Intermediate rose 4% to settle above $105 a barrel, while global benchmark Brent crude settled above $109 a barrel. Trump said he didn’t push Xi to pressure Tehran to revive the strait, offering no sign of a breakthrough in the standoff over the waterway. China is the top buyer of Iranian crude.
Traders are focused on the “lack of concrete takeaways from the Xi-Trump meeting, particularly as it relates to any meaningful pressure on Iran,” said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group. “We’re getting mixed rhetoric, as usual, and the market is trying to sift through it.”
Disappointment over a lack of progress from the Trump-Xi meeting added to a slew of headlines this week that increased concerns over the conflict. Traders remain on edge over a potential return to hostilities between the US and Iran after a ceasefire has proven to be fragile. Meanwhile, flows through the critical strait are easing yet again amid reports of a ship seizure near the waterway.
Physical crude markets have also firmed again in recent days, offering a reminder of the wider supply tightness that’s hitting the global oil industry.
The nearly 11-week conflict has driven global oil inventories down at a record pace, and the market will remain “severely undersupplied” until October even if hostilities end next month, the International Energy Agency said this week.
“The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the war in the Middle East has intensified energy disruptions, with growing concerns that the energy system could experience a critical breakdown if crude flows do not resume,” said Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities. “Such a development could send crude into the $150 range.”
WTI finished the week up more than 10% and Brent finished the week up 8%. Brent prices settled above $100 a barrel for the fourth consecutive week.
Friday also saw a broad selloff in bond markets as concerns grew that oil flows won’t normalize quickly, leading to a spike in inflation.
The ceasefire between Iran and the US has been in place since early April despite a series of flareups. Trump recently said the truce was on “massive life support,” while deriding the Iranian response to his proposal to end the war. Both Iran and the US are blocking traffic through the waterway for global energy flows.
“Unless we see China pressuring Iran, and it look as of now they are not engaging, the US and Israel will likely be tightening measures further, which is a near-term positive to crude prices,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president for trading at BOK Financial Securities Inc.
Only a trickle of tankers have exited the Persian Gulf since the conflict started, sapping vital flows of energy including natural gas to global customers. The longer-term impact of the war is also starting to crystallize. On Friday, the United Arab Emirates said it will complete the construction of a pipeline bypassing Hormuz by next year, doubling its export capacity outside the waterway.
--With assistance from Charles Gorrivan.




