Market News

By : Gbenga Akinfenwa

From $169.12b in 2025, the cocoa and chocolate market is projected to hit $245.97b by 2031, registering a compound yearly growth rate of 6.44 per cent.

This growth is underpinned by surging demand for dark chocolate on account of its heart health benefits, Europe’s dominant market expansion, and the emergence of a cocoa lifestyle culture in Asia, alongside India’s steady expansion in both cocoa production and domestic chocolate consumption.

Parallel to cocoa, the global coffee market is projected to reach approximately $486.2b by 2035 from the present $284.8b. This growth is fuelled by the rapid growth of coffee culture and a surge in Ready-to-Drink (RTD) options.

As climate change increasingly threatens Arabica yields, the industry is pivoting toward Fine Robusta and heat-resistant varieties thereby creating a unique and strategic opening for African producers who cultivate these resilient beans.

Despite the robust growth celebrated in boardroom reports, the reality on the ground in West, East, and Central Africa is one of systemic hardship. Reports have it that African cocoa and coffee farmers are currently operating as the economic shock absorbers of the world’s appetite.

When global prices fall below the cost of production, farmers are said to be absorbing the losses – a loss that translates into skipped meals, children withdrawn from school, and the inability to afford basic healthcare.

For many families, cocoa and coffee are not mere commodities, they are the only lifeline. Volatile market prices have prevented farmers from affording the fertilisers, inputs, labour hiring or climate-resilient seedlings needed to protect their crops and investment, leading to a bleak cycle of declining yields and deepening debt.

As temperatures rise, smallholder farmers are being forced to move to higher altitudes or abandon their ancestral lands, often with zero financial safety net from the global brands that profit from their harvest.

According to the Cocoa and Coffee Farmers Alliance Association of Africa (COCEFAAA), the consequences of farmer poverty do not remain at the farm gate, they travel through the entire supply chain.

The Global President of COCEFAAA, Comrade Adeola Adegoke, said when a farmer cannot afford to maintain their land, the quality and quantity of global supply suffer, ultimately threatening the very growth the industry predicts. “A drop in prices does not merely hurt households; it threatens the resilience of the entire global supply chain.”

Adegoke noted that in a bid to capture a significant share of the burgeoning value, Africa must move decisively beyond the farm gate and integrate deeper into the global value chain.

“COCEFAAA has identified three strategic pillars – Research and Development to Safeguard Africa’s Crops; Domestic Roasting Facility, Processing and Value Addition; and Regional Block Collaboration and Collective Bargaining.

“Africa must urgently prioritise Agricultural R&D with a focus on developing drought, pest, and disease-resistant crop varieties; creating early-maturing crops to shorten the return on investment for smallholder farmers; supporting sustainable agricultural practices that meet increasingly strict global environmental standards.

“The vast majority of the $245b in cocoa and $486.2b in coffee valuation are captured at the processing, domestic roasting facility and retail stages, not at the farm. Africa must be intentional in the establishment of domestic roasting facility and processing plants capable of transforming raw beans into other derivatives, thereby retaining the added value within the continent.

“Price volatility remains a systemic and existential threat to African farmers. By initiating and deepening regional block collaboration between West, East, and Central African origin countries, the continent can harmonise pricing strategies and develop collective bargaining power. This unified approach is essential to ensure that when global prices fall, the impact on farmer livelihoods is cushioned rather than catastrophic,” he said.

Adegoke revealed that COCEFAAA is already advocating conversations around alternative emerging markets, such as India and broader Asia and calling on global exporters and manufacturers to move beyond short-term spot-market logic and implement the structural changes as a matter of urgency.

He said: “Manufacturers must transition toward long-term purchasing agreements that guarantee a living income for farmers, regardless of market fluctuations. Price volatility must no longer be a burden borne exclusively by the producer.

“Moreover, there is an urgent and immediate need for increased investment in farmer technical assistance, training, and subsidised access to inputs, including pesticides, fertilisers, and irrigation infrastructure.

“Further, global partners must co-fund African-led research and development into drought resistant and early-maturing varieties to safeguard the 2031 and 2035 projections against the accelerating threats of climate change.

“The expanding middle class in Asia and deepening trade ties with India present a massive frontier for market diversification. By aligning African production with Asian consumption trends, the continent can stabilise its future against the volatility of traditional markets. The projections for 2031 and 2035 are unambiguous: there is a fortune to be made in cocoa and coffee.

“The challenge for Africa and its global partners is to ensure that this fortune is shared equitably with the men and women who plant the seeds/seedlings, tend the trees, and carry the harvest.

“We cannot talk about a $245b cocoa market or a $486.2b coffee market while the people growing the beans are struggling to put food on their own tables. If the world wants Africa to contribute to the 2031 and 2035 projections, the world must first invest in the dignity and survival of the African farmer.”

He stressed that the success of COCEFAAA’s regional initiatives ultimately depends on the willingness of global manufacturers to treat farmer livelihoods not as a footnote, but as the very foundation of the supply chain, as the time for structural reform is now.